Top Stock Picks for the NYSE, Nasdaq, and AMEX
| June
29, 2008 Weekend Update 11:55 AM EDT |
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| SP500 At 1278 the SP500 is near support levels. If we see a failure of this support, the next level down is near 1225. It's going to be a very volatile market if we do bounce off support between 1275-1225. A reversal day to indicate a new short term uptrend would be signaled by a drop near panic and then buying late in the session. A surge in Oil to $150+ could be one day to watch out for. The DOW at 11,346 has rapidly broken past key support levels of 11,634. We could see an intra day drop to the 10,750-11,000 support levels. GM , General Motors $11.55 at an all time weekly low continues to drag on the Market and it's going to take a double bottom before GM moves higher. It does look on longer term charts, GM could stay down for 3-4 months. As GM in the past has been a bellwether of the overall market, a breakout to new lows could also signal the SP500 will be lower in 2 months. The USD index at 72.29 could be moving lower. USD support is at 71.50. Oil and Gold could move higher if this drop in the dollar were to occur in the next 10-20 trading days. West Texas Oil $140.21 is positioned to move higher. As we calculated from the June 7th update, a possible spike for oil is $148.57. We have reviewed this forecast and now estimate oil to move to $156. With the continued momentum and news coverage, the most likely case is we have not seen a top. As oil is affected by world events, predictions are not so easy. USO Oil Fund, USO, $113.75, could be starting up another leg with 112.50-113 as old technical resistance. The Oil fund is moving up, but the action is very choppy. Volumes are 1.2X above average. ExxonMobil, XOM, $86.55 is trading below the 200 day moving average. Why is XOM trading as if it has reached a 5 year high ? The technical stock pattern is a rounding top over the last 12 months. If XOM is a bellwether for the direction of oil, we have seen a top in the minds of some traders. Natural Gas $13.20, has moved higher and now is paused below $13.50. In the next 20 trading sessions, we could trade above $13.50 of retrace back to the $12 - $12.50 range. Break-out Stocks, New Stock Scan Results : The US traders' notebook is updated with new stop-loss positions for Ultra Short SP500, SDS , UltraShort Financials SKF , and CPX.
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| Friday June 27, pre-market | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
The SP500 could be nearing a short term bottom. 1256 is strong technical support. A double bottom is confirmation, for now it's just a falling knife. On June 7th we commented on oil's possible spike higher to $148.57 in the next 10-15 trading days. The break-out in oil is underway. A full update will be sent out to our members this weekend. |
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| June 22, 2008 Weekend Update | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
SP500 After breaking key support levels of 1330 for the SP500 on Friday, a downward move could be started. It does look like the lows of March will be re-tested. The DOW at 11,842 is in a similar position with key support levels at 11,600-11,700. If we assume we are in a bear market, these support levels will not hold and a move to 11,500 could be in the summer to fall time frame. West Texas Oil $135.36 could be positioned for a move above $140. If oil were to move lower below $120, a technical trend line would have been broken and $101 is strong lower support. Checking the USO Oil Fund, USO, $109.14, in the last 10 trading days volumes have increased only on days of down moves. USO looks to be correcting or moving sideways in a flag pattern. We have had several key sectors performing well in the past 2-5 months including coal, fertilizer, steel, and energy plays. If the market were to start dropping as indicated above, all sectors will be pulled lower on profit taking or panic selling. For now, the easy money in coal, Ag plays, and steel could have been made. For these winners, the best trade to make is to simply increase your stop-loss. Ivanhoe, IVAN, $3.56 could be running out of pure momentum in the near term. Expect a pause in the move or a retracement. Oil Sands Quest, BQI, $6.38 is nearing a breakout above $6.50, a stop-loss position would be near $5.75. This is a heavy oil play with land holdings to support the price. The buy signal with be a break-out on high volume. Defensive Stocks, New Stock Scan Results: Ultra Short SP500, SDS, $63.37, upper resistance at $68-71 Short SP500, SH , $66.76, upper resistance at $68-70 UltraShort Financials SKF, $134.03, nearing the old highs of 146-149 Ultrashort QID, $40.98, possible reversal to old high of $57 streetTracks Gold, GLD, $88.95, The gold stocks look like they could be positioned for a move higher on market weakness. Above $92.50 would be a signal GLD could move higher. GLD has retraced from the 200 day moving average of $85 and is moving higher. |
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| June
20, Friday - premarket |
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| Coal, fertilizer and energy
stocks were under pressure Thursday, and
will have slowed the momentum for Friday's open. Stop-loss positions
are needed. Sell if you are unsure and lock in profits. |
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| June 17, Tuesday at the Close | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Our picks over the weekend have
generated some nice returns. Please set
your stop-loss positions just under the new highs. Some examples today: Potash up 4% today $239.50 POT add a trailing stop-loss at $230. Monsanto,up 4.9% today MON, $142.69, increase trailing stop-loss to $139.80 Agrium AGU, $110.99, up 4.9% today, increase trailing stop-loss to $107.50 Stock Break-out move: Ivanhoe Energy IVAN $3.36 up 8% today and volume is high. Stop-loss $3.15 The Traders' notes stop-loss postions have been updated for a few stocks. If you are new to trading, start your own traders' notes. |
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| June 16, 2008 Weekend Update |
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| SP500 up 1.5%
Friday to 1360. Last week we calculated the SP500 could be headed to
1332 or the 38.2%
retracement. We were close, the SP500 rebounded after bouncing at
1331.29. Today we see the SP500 rising or a sideways move near term
with lower support at 1331. James River Coal , JRCC, $48.64 continues to move higher. We first picked this breakout move in coal at $10.73 on January 26. If you want to join in to this bull run, place a stop-loss at $45. Don't bet the farm. Break-out Stocks, New Stock Scan Results:
Winning Stock Picks from June 4, in 7 trading sessions
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| June 10, 2008 Tuesday at the
close |
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| SP500
1358 is on a slow move lower. A reversal has not been signaled with
volume and price. The USD index at 73.65 has made a .97% move higher on the day, yet this is not a breakout to new highs. The dollar is in a sideways trading channel with upper resistance at 74, lower support at 71 ( for now). Can the Fed raise rates in the poor shape of the housing sector - or is this just short term talk ? Gold and Oil have retreated in the last few days with the Fed's comments. Oil's rise will resume if the dollar fails to hold these gains. WMI, $38.31, Waste Management, a slow and steady climb. AMSC, $43.11, American Superconductor Corp., explosive move up 19.4%, not for the weak trader. Long or short |
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| June 7, 2008 Weekend Update |
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| SP500
down 3% to 1360. Today's sell-off was on high volume and signals the
markets direction is lower. In our last update, we mentioned Fibonacci
retracements of 38.2%, 50% ,
and 61.8%. Fibonacci is a good guide for the prediction of
price movement. Today the SP500 could be headed to 1332 or the 38.2% retracement. This
is calculated using
[1440-1265=175]*.382=66.85,+1265=1331.85 . This market is so choppy
anything is possible so it's a
near term prediction assuming a downtrend. UNG, $60.10 Natural Gas ETF, stop-loss increased to $57.50. We added this pick to our US traders notes. USO $112.17 up 7.1%, United States Oil fund traded 33 million shares. USO has broken the old high of $108.36 ( a double top ). The volume was a record and could signal a spike higher for the week ahead. $118 is a possible near term target using a measured move of the previous zig-zag wave. ($108.36 - $98.62) + 108 = $118. West Texas Oil $138, breaking the old high with a double top for now. Using the same calculation of a measured move, a possible spike for Oil is $148.57 in the next 10-15 trading days. Gold $902 , A move toward $925 - $935 in the short term is possible with additional USD weakness. Above $925 - 950 would signal a move to $1000, or back to the old high. Barrick Gold, ABX $42.07 is moving up toward the 200 day moving average of $42.79. The move friday was higher on 1.5x average volumes. Eldorado Gold, EGO $8.65 is moving in a 45 degree trend above the break-out price of $8. EGO's move higher is at a 52 week high. Trend Reversal Watch list GLD, $89.06, SteetTracks Gold Shares. Reversal signal on 1.5X average volume of 17 million shares. Set stop-loss near $86-87. Note: near term resistance at $92-94 could slow down any move up. |
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| June 4, 2008 Wednesday at the close |
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| Skyworks Solutions, SWKS,
$10.65 A Quad top breakout in progress. We posted this on our stock
scan ...last weekend. GDP,$49.43 The move has been 4 days of high volumes and a breakout. For the traders it could be a short term play. SAI, $21.25, A move higher on 4X volume. The stock could has broke out above it's all time highs. Will it continue higher ? Watch for higher volumes and price action. PCX, $124.91, Patriot Coal. Another vertical move. These charts are climbing fast. For now, it's worth noting the big moves in Coal have been straight up. At some point retracements of 38.2%, 50% , and 61.8% ( fibonacci mathematics ) will occur. No Stock rises vertically and corrective moves provide traders opportunities to move in. ( Long or Short ). |
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| June 2, 2008 Monday at the close Not the best day on the overall market. The SP500 down 1.05% at 1385 could be supported by the 50 day moving average at 1380. Today's sell-off was on low volume and does not give a clear signal of the markets direction. UNG, $56.70 United States Natural Gas Fund maintains an upward trend. Stocks in near vertical climbs *worth watching, for a retracement in the next few weeks for an entry point. Enter the trade and place a stop-loss under the stock or ETF. ANR, $86.59 Alpha Natural Resources, up 6% today, Coal producer BEXP, $16.70, Brigham Exploration, up 14% today, Oil exploration |
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| May 31, 2008 –
Weekend
Update |
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| West
Texas $127.35
has moved down on the week. $123-125 could be near term technical
support. Even lower support would be the 50 day moving average of $116.
Last week we noted Oil was due for a
correction and played the short side. It's not easy to call next
week's action. Oil has made a retracement, however double tops are
common in commodities trading. We expect Oil to have a double top at
some point, back to $135. The USD index at 72.86 could break-out higher but would need to clear the 73.80 upper resistance area. More info on Dollar/Euro prices. Break-out Stocks, New Stock Scan Results:
Last Week's Stock scan - update
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| May 27, 2008 –
Tuesday
at the Close |
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| The USD index
at 72.34 has formed a near term base. This support level
is higher than the last base of 71.50 mid April. The dollar could be
rebounding. Could Oil and Gold could retreat from this point ? On our Weekend update, we noted Oil stocks could have topped. We may see Oil moving lower short term and today's action is lower. USO $104.26 down 2.5%, United States Oil fund traded 10.8 million shares has not broken the trend-line but has rolled over. The uptrend could be broken very soon... the next few trading days. XLE $85.70, Energy Select Sector could have support at 85.29. DUG, $28.83, Proshares Ultra Short Oil and Gas is added to our holdings in the Traders' Notebook. Volume indicates a reversal up. Gold $912 has paused the uptrend in the last 4 days with with upper resistance at $956-960. Lower support at $880. Gold looks to be heading lower. Barrick Gold, ABX $40.79 has fallen below the 200 day moving average after making an attempt to rally. This could be a signal the USD is moving to higher highs. Break-out stocks, New Stock Scans results, May 27 |
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May 24, 2008 – Long Weekend Update The SP500 1375 continues it's down trend. The next support level is near 1360. The volume of the fall is not high which is the only positive if you are long on the market. The Dow at 12,479 has broken support levels and the next support is at or near 12,300. West Texas Oil closed Friday at $132.19. From all the media reports, this sure looks a lot like it's due for a short term correction. USO $106.95, United States Oil fund traded 13 million shares Friday on 2X average volume. Topping formations have very high volumes near their peak. USO looks to be topping. Most traders will avoid going into any hyperbolic stock or commodities rise. The resource sector stocks look to have slowed the uptrend. A market leader does not seem to be on our break-out scans from this Friday's close. This may suggest a sector rotation out of energy for the short term. XLE $86.26, Energy Select Sector has rolled over in the short term. Trend Reversal Watch list
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| May 22, 2008 –
Thursday pre-market The SP500 has
broken below the 1400 level and sold off on higher than average volumes
Wednesday. At this point we could expect
some weakness/volativity in the next few trading sessions. The DJIA at
12601 is
near the 50 day moving average support . The DOW made a local double
top 13,136
and the upper resistance of the 200 day moving average remains. The Dow
Jones
Wilshire 5000 index 14,084 has broken
the uptrend line. Use caution and stay out of the market if you
are not prepared to keep tight stop-loss points. |
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| May
20, 2008 - Tuesday at the Close The SP500 looks to be weakening it's uptrend. 1427 is the 200 day moving average and the close at 1413 is not supporting a new breakout. Break-out stocks, New Stock Scans results:
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| May
18, 2008 - Weekend Update The SP500 1425, is looking very bullish. If we can cross the 200 day moving average at 1427 and hold these gains for the week ahead, a bullish buy signal is given. Not all sectors are a buy, we are in a stock pickers market.The Nasdaq 2528 has closed above the 200 day moving average at 2516. A bullish outlook for tech near term could be ahead. Short term, the US Dollar index 72.82 looks to have rolled over and heading lower. Oil $126.74 is pause at this level and looks like higher levels are on the way. As Oil tops in the days or weeks ahead, expect a parabolic move up. Speculators will drive this market near vertical and a big sell-off will follow. Break-out stocks, a follow-up on last week's picks
Break-out stocks, New Stock Scans results:
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| May 14, 2008 - Wednesday at the
close The SP500 came close to upper resistance at the 200 day moving average of 1428 to close at 1408. Break-out stocks, New Stock Scans results: BHP $90.21 BHP Billiton Ltd. could be breaking out above 90. DTV $27.95 Direct TV Group, breakout over 28. LPNT, $32.90 Lifepoint Hospitals, crossed the 200 day and trending higher. ATVI, $32.52 Activision Inc., breakout over 31 |
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| May 12, 2008 - Monday at the
close Our
stock of the day
was RIMM, $141.97 up 6.93% today.
On our traders’ notes May 02 we identified RIM as in a possible
break-out at
$131.92. The break-out price was near 137-138. At this point we moved
up and
crossed the break-out point. A possible stop-loss position near $135
will
protect profits. RIMM remains on an upward trend for the short term.
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May 09, 2008 - Friday at the
close The SP500 closed at 1388. The 1400 resistance point was broken, only to bounce off the 200 day moving average. So again watch for another move to re-test the 1400 SP and the 200 day. Time is one attribute overlooked. If we do not see a break above 1400 in the next 5-10 trading days, the short term trend could be another leg down. |
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| May 08, 2008 - Thursday at the
close Our stock of the day was DRS, $73.89. On our last update, May 02 a breakout underway for DRS. DRS poped up 15.92%. This puts the trade up 18.3% from our April 30 post. Protect these profits. Up the trailing-stop to $73 or take some money off the trade. Another update on the April 25 picks, with stop loss points.
Breakout stocks, New Stock Scans:
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| May 06, 2008 - Tuesday at the
close Bad news on the credit front and the Market heads higher. It defies logic but the charts are moving out of sink with the news. Our view the SP500 at 1418 has not changed, resistance is just overhead at the 200 day moving average, 1431.The DOW at 13,020 is also just below the 200 day MA. 13,040. Either we are going to be a break-out of the market on higher volumes or a reversal in the next 2 weeks.
It takes time and a review of break-out stocks trading above the 200 day moving average. Above 3 of the 4 stocks are trading above the break-out price posted April 25. Some homework for our readers. Keep an eye on some of our weekly posts, it may take more than 3-5 days for these picks to break-out. A trader may wait on the sidelines for the right time to enter the market. Not every day needs to be a trading day. |
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May 02, 2008 - Friday at the
close The SP500 is above 1400 now what ? From a technical view, we move to the 200 day moving average at 1432 and correct lower ? First one should look for the volume on the move above 1400 - which should confirm the direction. Checking this, the average volume of 3.29 billion was only average.
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| April 30, 2008 - at the close The SP500 at 1385 still remains below 1400.The longer we test 1400, the greater the risk for a move down. Stock scan results for the watchlist.
We are trying to make our scans easier for novice traders. On our table Sunday April 27, a sample of buying into market momentum with break-out prices was noted. Noble Drilling did not break-out. Some of the picks above could be a turning points in uptrends - hitting upper resistance and reversing short term. Buying into strength and placing a stop-loss must be used. |
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| Sunday April
27, 2008 If the SP500 could break-out above 1400, we could see a move to 1436 resistance ( 200 day moving average) . On the downside, 1280 is the lower support. As we are trading in a bear market, another weekly drop could be near. The Fertilizer story with related stocks keeps moving up. Potash closed Friday at $207.08. Do we see another 10% of a 90% total up-leg ? Potash traded 25 million shares last Thursday with a intra day low of $187.74, which could have signaled a major top ? Sector Rotation For Gold, Energy and the Agriculture sectors, as we break-out on a stock in it's 7th or 9th inning, the danger of buying at these levels is increasing. In our trading notes, we comment on taking some profits. By the time we allow the trade to stop-out, we could have removed 50-80 % of our holdings. It takes just one big loss to be wiped out. In this bear market cash is better than holding dogs. Our April 25, end of market Stock Scan.
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| Wednesday April
23, 2008 Mosaic MOS $133.27 and Potash POT $204.12, high volumes and some profit taking. Our stop-loss points for the US markets are updated. Halliburtion, Hal $47.48 continues a move higher. Upper target for HAL could be near $50. NBR $38.58 high volumes moving higher. The SP500 @ 1379 needs to break 1380-1390 to move higher. Stock Scanning results: NUE Nucor Corp. $75.24, 6 million shares trading on a nice uptrend. CVX Chevron $94.98, stop $93 RIO $39.23, stop $37.90 FE, First Energy $77.51, stop $75.80 KMP Kinder Morgan $59.44, stop 58.50 SGY Stone Energy Corp. $66.80, stop 62.50. Textbook uptrend. UNG United States Natural Gas Fund $52.62, stop 49.25 |
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| Saturday April
19, 2008 A 3 day rally on Wall Street. The SP500 up 1.81% @ 1390 breaking a trading range to the upside. For the SP500 near term, we have a technical target of 1439, or upper resistance at the 200 day moving average. The Dow @ 12,849 has overhead resistance at 13,090. Both the SP500 and the Dow need to break out of the upper resistance to move higher. The most likely case, a breakout higher and a retracement lower after testing the 200 day moving average. The Energy sector SPDR, XLE $83.59 is at a 52 week high. From the previous week-week April 13-14 Members email. Stock Scan ver 8.1 results: Potash, POT $204.67 up 14.6 % from $178.47 CF Industries, CF $153.94 up 6.5% from $144.42 Mosaic, MOS $135.25 up 11.2 % from $121.61 |