| Technical Analysis, Indicators | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Of the 20+ indicators, it is not easy to get started. We suggest the most basic indicators to start your charting skills. The time horizon for trading set-ups will depend on your trading style. As a history lesson please review our S&P500 charts going back to the 1950's. You can see from the market corrections, anyone telling you to buy and hold could be holding stock in a 40% correction. Knowing your trading style will help you determine if you are a day trader or a 10 day swing trader. For the investors who are taking the "buy and hold" strategy, our simple 200 day moving average model should steer you clear of the major market meltdowns. The average trader could only use 2-3 indicators. A combination of candlesticks, volume, Bollinger bands, and chart patterns may be simple enough. Experience to identify what chart patterns are forming is where the learning curve will require several years of chart review. |
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| 1. Volume and Moving Averages. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Without the volume on the chart, a technical stock pattern is guessing. The market will give away the future direction in most chart patterns with a volume signal. Volumes should be graphed as close to the price as possible for a direct correlation. Below is the S&P500 (
November 2007-December 31, 2008) with 200 day moving average, MA, ( red
line ) and 50 day MA (blue line) graphed. Volume confirms the direction
is down with a peak in October 2008. The last price on the chart (
December 31,2008) appears to be moving higher - but the volumes
are very low. In this case, we can say no volume signal is provided by
the data. The close above the 50 day moving average is one positive. A
close above the 200 day MA (red line) would be bullish for the entire
market. Any rally at this point could take the S&P500 back to the
1200 range or near the 200 day MA before technical resistance resumes. Moving Averages (MA), SMA, EMA The 200 day moving average or 30 week moving average defines the bear of bullish nature of the stock or ETF. On a daily chart, the 10,20,50 day moving averages are indicators of shorter term trends. In our example above we are using a daily chart. On a weekly chart, use the 30 week MA to approximate the 200 day moving average.
Two types of moving averages are often charted. (1) SMA, Simple moving average. (2) EMA, Exponential moving average
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| 2. Bollinger Bands, BB | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Bollinger Bands are one of the
most simple indicator overlays on a technical stock chart. Bollinger
bands are overlaid on the price. The ( upper, SMA, lower ) bands are
defined by the standard deviation from the simple moving average SMA.
It is a common default in charting software to use a 20 day SMA.
Many traders use 2.0 standard deviations to capture the majority of the
stock's price swings. Often the code used for this indicator is = (20,2.0).
Strategy Up Trending Stocks Bollinger bands (20,1.7) allow a trader to quickly tell if a stock is trending. If a stock is in a trend on the upper or lower Bollinger band it is more probable to remain on this trend unless it crosses the 20 day SMA. If the stock is rising and the price (high,low,and close) touches the 1.7 upper bollinger band, it's more probable to remain on the uptrend another day. As the stock moves toward the 20 day SMA ( middle band), the more likely a reversal will occur. A high volume signal is needed to confirm a reversal to lower prices. Buy signals can be found on the
upper Bollinger band. Most break-outs will occur as the price rises on
the upper Bollinger band with 2X volumes and closes above old
resistance points. Sell only after the price crosses and closes below
the 20 day moving average. Down trending stocks A stock in a downtrend will
usually display the price action (candlesticks) touching the lower BB (
20,1.7). After several days of moving lower the stock may become
oversold. At this point buyers will move in a the price action will
move the stock upward toward the 20 day SMA, away from the lower BB. A bottom or near term reversal
will be more probable in conjunction with a double bottom or reversal
chart pattern. When a bottom has formed, the price moves slowly off the
lower BB and will cross the 20 day moving average. To confirm the
reversal, a 2nd or 3rd day close above the 20 day MA is needed. In many
cases, a bear market will have rallies where the stock moves up
quickly, touches the 20 day MA, and then heads back down.
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| Suggested
reading: 1.Technical Analysis of Stock Trends, 8th Edition, Robert D. Edwards and John Magee |
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| 2.Enclopedia of Chart Patterns, 2nd Edition, Thomas N. Bulkowski | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Technical Indicators - Appendix | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Please read over the Terms of Service. In all financial markets, a high level of risk is involved. Website information, emailed newsletters, and trading notes are intended to provide information for investors and traders only. Readers are advised that this electronic publication is issued solely for information purposes and should not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. This information is not intended to be used as the sole basis of any investment decisions, nor should it be construed as advice designed to meet the investment needs of any particular investor. We encourage you to consult with independent financial advisers with respect to any investment in the securities mentioned herein. |
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