Twitter updates

 

Archived Market Updates and Stock Picks

 
   
   
April  17, 2011

Russell 2000 ishares IWM, $83.51 - a return to support.  After making a low of $81.45 in the past week, the russell 2000 does not look like it is in a bigger correction. Some caution is needed if IWM breaks below $80 in the near term.

S&P500,  1319. The one year chart suggests a double top at (1344,1339). Volumes do not indicate we have had a major top - no climax in selling pressure. The market may be in a period of consolidation. On a 3 year chart, the S&P500 could easily resume an upward trend and take out the near term high of 1344. On a 10 year chart, 1576 in 2007 remains far off, for any major bull run.

Gold and Silver Spotlight

Gold is making new highs and the majority of underlying stocks have yet to run. ABX Barrick gold is nearing a break-out at 56. Eldorado Gold, EGO 18.06 is $2 from a break-out. Kinross gold KGC, $15.67 is more near the 52 low and trading under the 52week moving average. Newmont NEM, 57.75 is also trading below the 200 day moving average and well off the 1 year high of $65. Novagold, NG, 13.27 is in a sideways trend and nearing the 200 day moving average. NG could pop back to $17 if gold pushes higher.

Minefinders Corp, MFN, 15.60 has exploded with big gains in the past 1.5 months. A pullback to $13 may be a safer entry point.

GLD, $145 a new break-out. A near term model target if 157 is possible with additional upward momentum.

SLV $41.84, a new high. The trend looks over bought. Our model at the high side is 42.20 before some   profit taking. Proshares Ultra Silver AGQ, $289 are for the bigger risk takers.

 
April  4, 2011 , Russell 2000 break-out ?,

Avalon and Molycorp Rare Earths

Russell 2000 ishares IWM, 84.54 - new 52 week high and break-out.  Broken Double top and break-out to the upside. If the charts are not wrong, the market has just broke higher. Keep an eye on this move up. If we can hold on, a new leg up in the market could be in the cards.

S&P500,  1332, is nearing the highs of 1344.  If the market can shake off the Japan scare and the problems of the past 2 months, anything is possible.

GLD 139.20, back down from the near break-out. Money could be put to work outside gold for now.

Rare Earth Spotlight

Molycorp, MCP, $59.25 nearing a new break-out. We have been following MCP for some time. Our twitter posts have been making nice profits for our readers.

Avalon, AVL $8.95, A spike in volume on April 1st alerted traders. The close at $8.95 is in break-out territory. Volumes were near all time trading highs of 16.8 million on the AMEX and 3 million on the  TSE Toronto exchange. Technicals indicate a higher price is in the way. Options trading mid-Friday also indicated higher prices are ahead.

 

Short term picks: CAT, KO, DE, MPEL, NBR, IWM Russell 2000, SD, VRX,

WNR, 17.98 , Western Refining INC. A very nice break-out potential,

 

Canadian picks:

GWG.V , 0.86, Great Western Minerals. A base has built and if the rare earths move up, this is one to watch.

NEM, $9.61 Neo Materials Technologies - breakout in progress over the old resistance of $9. We can only speculate all these new rare earth mines will need to process the materials. Neo Materials may be one of the few to prosper in the next few years. Both fundamentals and technicals are behind this stock.

 

March 23, 2011

S&P500 1297, below the 50 day moving average in a correction. If the market breaks above the 50day moving average, a 15 day up move could be in the cards. If not, we retrace to 1245.

The correction in the last 2-3 weeks has created trading opportunities. Rare Earth stocks spiked Tuesday this week. REE, MCP, AVL, REMX, and SHZ all moved higher. The rare earths could gain some momentum, but for now put these on the radar.

Short term picks: CNP,PWAV,SWN,REE,AVL,MCP,GLD,SLV,NG,ABX,NEM,BIDU

GLD 140.34 GOLD just near a break-out ( top of the trading range ). Wait for the break-out

Silver, SLV 36.47 moving higher is break-out.

 

 

March 12, 2011

 

A Correction has started, it's not over.

S&P500 1304, below the 50 day moving average. Downside support 1230.

Dow Jones 12,044. Downside support 11,541

We are now testing the 50 day moving averages with a weighting to the downside. If you have been following our twitter updates; VXX was one pick which is making money. The low volumes in the S&P500 advance was indicating a top was nearing. The external events of world oil, war, and now Japan are making headlines but the correction was underway before these events. Too far, too fast, and stock valuations are priced for a full recovery.

If you are a long term investor it may be a good time to take your profits off the table. All corrections are different so be prepared for further choppy trades.

 

Break-out or up trending stocks/ETF's: * Twitter updates

VXX , 33.01, indications of upside targets 40+ , base has formed, volume signal is off the charts.

Gold, GLD 138.22, funding support, in a trading range, with downside pressure to 134.

Silver, SLV 25.03 , remains in uptrend, choppy action of profit taking. Possible downside to 31-32

 

February 27, 2011

 

Correction or just quick pullback, Energy Stocks

For several weeks leading up to the S&P500 1344 local top,  we have been calling for a correction. A pull back to 1230 would still keep the bull market intact and set-up a move higher.  Friday's move 1% higher was on below average volumes and should be questioned. The VXX, 31.51 had one of the biggest volume days in the last year at over 40 million shares. VXX volumes are telling the market the reversal of the S&P500 is real. Energy stocks are the big winners.

Break-out or up trending stocks/ETF's: * Twitter updates

VXX , SLV Silver , HERO Hercules Offshore , KOG Kodiak Oil and Gas , LDK LDK Solar - nearing break-out

NXY Nexen - nearing breakout,

NE Noble Drilling,

SD Sandridge Energy ( Volume signal, strong move up ).

Gold, GLD 137.38 has moved near the top of the trading range.  GLD has a prior triple top with the resistance level at 140. A break above $140 would be very bullish.

Silver, SLV 32.56 has broken out and continues to show strength. SLV could retrace to 30.44 in a pull back to the break-out and still have a more bullish move higher. For now watch SLV to hold the 30.40 level of support.

CNQ, Canadian Natural Resources, uptrend in place.

CVE, Cenovus Energy, uptrending ( nearing a price target but could have some upside )

February 12, 2011

 

Support and Resistance

Does technical analysis work ? We have been expecting a move lower for some time. The SPY 133.11 makes a new high weekly, discounting poor employment numbers, political turmoil, and over bought indicators. Resistance models for SPY are near 135 - which is very near. The S&P500 now stands near 1330. S&P500 models of resistance are near 1400, nearly 70 points higher. The S&P500's 200 day moving average is 1161 and at overbought levels. A pull back to 1230 would still keep the bull market intact and set-up a move higher. The correction expected from a technical view would have the S&P500 drop down 1330-1230 = 100 points or 7.5%. For now, if the volumes are low and the price action keeps moving higher we could see a flash crash or a 3 day reversal.

 

Break-out or up trending stocks/ETF's: * Twitter updates

JDSU, CLX, DHR, DOW, DD, XLF,GT,HTZ, HST, JCP,

 

 

TSX 60 , XIU $19.88 should have a stop-loss set at $19.50. XIU is little changed over the past 5 trading days, except a topping pattern is emerging. Gold, GLD 132.32 has moved higher, but the chart would suggest a move to 131 if this rally fades. GLD has major resistance at 139 and support at 126. CCO, 41.55 is nearing the upper resistance at 43, volumes are decreasing so do not expect a move up until volume price rise.

 

Break-out or up trending stocks/ETF's:

KAT,NA,SLG, SGY, BNS, TRR, BTE, BXE, PXX ( text book uptrend ), CNR, DML, GWO, ICP ,

 

February 4, 2011 Market still creeping higher

We repeat a cautious position for the up trending market. As the market goes higher, the risk trade increases. A pullback would be healthy. 

Break-out stocks/ETF's:  * Twitter updates

Up Trending stocks/ETF's:

CBG, CIM, DD, EBAY, FITB, HAP, HBAN, IR, IDTI, NBR, NOV, PTEN, BTU, IYR, SU, STI, TER, TSO, TRV, WEN, WDC

 

 

CDN:

The TSX 60 index has made a new high in the past 3 days. XIU $19.90 should have a stop-loss set at $19.50. Over the past week, Denison Mines , Cameco CCO, Suncor SU, and Penn West PWT,  were noted as up trending stocks.

 

Break-out stocks/ETF's:

Twin Butte Energy TBE $2.91, MFC, Manulife Financial $18.84, SLF, Sun life Financial $33.02, IMO Imperial Oil 45.19, U, $9.39 Uranium has moved up and could run for a few more weeks. GTE Grand Tierra Energy $8.92

 

January 31, 2001

This week we do not intend to say we have a crystal ball and the market is going to sell-off 10%, but when the DOW punched past 12,000, it was a signal of euphoria. The S&P500 could find support at 1230 in the next 10 trading days. For now we remain defensive and bias toward short positions. The Russell 2000, IWM, $77.41 has attempted to rally and failed. IWM volume now indicates a move down to 74.

Break-out stocks/ETF's:  This week we only note the new highs and potential set-ups. If the market moves down, it's going to make all these break-outs VOID.

Suncor,SU, $39.99 , nearing a 1 year high and breakout. Baker Hughes, BHI, $67.29 nice move higher but could correct ? ConocoPhillips, COP, $70.56 , Exco Resources, XCO 20.13, Haliburton HAL, $43.88

Reversal Trends:

Some of the inverse EFT's:  SDS $23.01, VXX $32.10, TZA $15.83

Canadian Updates

 

The TSX index, XIU, $19.38 is starting to look like a head and shoulders top. A breakdown below 19 could confirm a sell-off is nearing. HOU $7.21 has just crossed the 200 day MA. For the last 4 months, west texas light crude continues to grid higher within a resistance level near $92USD.

GLD, 130.28 USD, managed to bounce back last week. The one day reversal lifted Barrick ABX, $47.39 off the 30 day lows. If the problems in Egypt continue, gold may have a short term rally.

Rare Earths - AVL 5.93, RES 12.90 are at support levels. If you are looking to accumulate, wait for market direction. A sell-off could create a buying opportunity.

Break-out stocks/ETF's:

SU.TO $40.04 Suncor, ATH.TO $16.80 Athabasca Oil Sands, IMG, 18.90 nearing older resistance,  MBT, 30.93 is moving higher with 3-4 strong momentum days,  

January 23,2001

For the week, the S&P500 trades sideways to down. As mentioned on twitter, our stock scans were showing a number of 52 week highs, but little room to run. For now we remain defensive on the S&P500 rally. A pull back would be positive for the next 10 trading days. The DOW is still trending higher but the Russell 2000, IWM,  $77.19 has sold off the last 3 days.

Natural Gas UNG, $6.395 is nearing the top of a trading range. A break above $6.50-6.75 could be a signal for a bottom. Devon, DVN $83.51 remains in an upward trend - but wait for a better entry point. Chesapeake, CHK, $27.80, could move into a new break-out with a close over $30. Wait for CHK to break-out.

Break-out stocks/ETF's:

HPQ, $47.23 is nearing the older resistance at $48.50. Keep an eye on HPQ for a move to the upside. Diamond Offshore drilling, DO $73.37 could be nearing a resistance point for a move higher.

Some of the inverse EFT's may have bottomed ?  SDS $22.79, VXX $32.23, TZA $16.07

 

  Canadian Updates

 

Natural Gas stock, Encana , ECA $32, is showing signs of a small uptrend. ECA will need to break $33 and settle higher for the rally to continue.

Rare Earths - Great Western Minerals, GWG.V  $0.75, is at a new 52 week high. Volumes and the chart are looking bullish.

Break-out stocks/ETF's:

PWT.TO $26.09 Penn West Petroleum, volume surge on Friday Jan 21. Birchcliff Energy, BIR.TO $11.36, volume has picked up with the price. BIR could have more upside. Nexen, NXY $24.83, steady rise and nearing the old resistance of $26.91. Precision Drilling, PD, $10.28, a move on volume could be nearing.

January 15,2001

For the week, the S&P500 continues to grid higher. Volumes are below the 60 EMA moving average and suggesting we may be due for some set back ? Exxon Mobil, XOM is in a nice uptrend at $77.84. Cypress Semiconductor CY $21.34 is in a fast trending move higher. Rare Earths -Molycorp, MCP $46.13, Rare Earth Resources, REE $13.40, Avalon, AVL $5.70, REMX $23.37, are nearing the old break-out levels which could now be support. If you missed the first momentum trade, a second one could be nearing.

Winners from last week:

NVDA closed last week $19.87 on high volumes, this week $23.59 or a 18% gain. Take some profits. Marathon Oil, MRO post from Jan 07 @ $38.63, topped at $44.90 or a 16% spike to close at $42.59. A new suggested stop-loss at $41.40. Nisource, NI,  Jan 07 @ $18.21, $18.57 moved higher this week - a continued break-out. Potash POT $171.90, looks to continue higher. Cheniere Energy LNG $7.20 up to $7.48 and volume has moved up - continues to show strength. United Heath group, UNH, last week $38.45, this weak $40.77. The volume signal on Friday could keep the price elevated above 39.

Break-out patterns with uncertainty:

GT Solar International SOLR $10.75, the volume has dropped off. Some weakness for the short term.CSX corp last week $67.79, this week 69.21, volume has not moved higher. Weakness for momentum. Pfizer PFE $18.34 ( no change from last week) , Qualcomm QCOM last week $51.73, close Friday at 52.04 - weakness for a break-out.Time Warner TWX $33.30, this week 33.13, momentum weakness. Weyerhaeuser WY, $20.57, this week $21.63. the volume has dropped and some weakness is present.

Break-out stocks/ETF's:

JDSU $17.77, ALTR $39.33, OIH $146.59, SMH $34.41, TYC $45.24, VIA/B 41.79, BRCM $47.34, C $5.13,

Canadian Updates

 

Gold Stocks have come off the highs of December. Barrick, ABX 26.59 has dropped to the 200 day Moving average or support ? GLD 132.69 is near the lower trading range of the past 3 1/2 months. Novagold NG, $13.49 has dropped back from the highs of $16.92 in early December. Goldcorp G, $40.17 sold off Friday and could be oversold in the short term.

Rare Earths - RES $13.17, AVL $5.70, are nearing the old break-out levels which could now be support. If you missed the first momentum trade, a second one could be nearing.

Winners from last week:

BNK Petroleum, BKX close last week $4.21 , this week $5.29 a rise of 25%. The trend looks positive but some consolidation and profit taking is needed.

Removed from the break-out watch:

Grande Cache Coal GCE $11.12 has not moved higher and volumes have slowed in the last 3 days. Magna International MG,$58.15, a slow uptrend now in a consolidation stage.

Break-out stocks/ETF's:

AVM.TO $7.15,BBD/B.TO $5.61 Target $5.8-6, North American Palladium PDL $7.39, Paladin Energy PDN, $ 5.33. PetroMinerales Ltd, $37.90, Potash, POT, $170.60, Sun Life Financial SLF, $31.44 Target is $33, Uranium, U, $8.61 - after a 1.5 month consolidation could be moving higher.

January 8, 2011

For the week, the S&P500 continues to grid higher. SPY, $127.14 is looking a little overbought. The market could be due for some downward pressure. Strong support for the S&P500 is at 1225-1235. Stocks in an uptrend: Apple AAPL, $336, XOM $75.59,

US Break-out stocks:

Marathon Oil, MRO $38.63, Nisource, NI $18.21, Potash POT $166.92, GT Solar International SOLR $10.50, Support at $.9.50-10, Cheniere Energy LNG $7.20 , CSX corp $67.79, Pfizer PFE $18.34 ,NVDA $19.87 high volumes, Qualcomm QCOM $51.73, volume signal needed.Time Warner TWX $33.30 - the move has volume and a nice base. Nearing a break-out. United Heath group, UNH, $38.45, Weyerhaeuser WY, $20.57.

Canadian Break-outs:

Grande Cache Coal GCE $11.74, the next leg up ? Support at $11 , BNK Petroleum, BKX $4.21 , volume signal in the past 2 trading days. Magna International MG,$59.02,

January 4, 2011

Great Western Mineral Group GWG.V up 17% on high volume to close at $.68

Neo Material Technologies, NEM $8.08, could be the winner in the next few months as the processor of Rare earth materials becomes the focus of investors. Molycorp MCP, has a letter of intent to work with Neo Material in the processing of Rare Earths.

Rare Element Resources $16.22 REE, had some profit taking today but is still higher than the break-out at $14. REE needs to stay above $14 for the next leg up.

January 03, 2011

Molycorp, MCP Rare Earth Metals, REE Avalon, AVL

 

Rare Earth Metals - Caution is needed

Molycorp $57.50, Rare Earth Elements REE $17.16, and Avalon, AVL $7.83 again are high flyers. Avalon moved aggressively higher in December after a new listing on the AMEX. It would be wise to let this sector cool down before adding to positions. A 10-15% retracement or correction could be a buying opportunity. The run up into December/January was fast and easy money was made. The rare earth sector is now purely Momentum traders. Please take your original investment off the table and let the profits ride or, (2) set a stop-loss to ensure profits are preserved.

December 27, 2010

Rare earth stocks have captured the traders radar over the past 6 months. Molycorp, MCP continues to push higher with China ready to release new trade restrictions for Rare Earth export.

Take some profits off the table. Avalon, AVL had a big move up 30% with the dual listing on the AMEX. Now trading over $5, AVL has broken out. 

October 18, 2010

Rare Earth Metals are in focus. MolyCorp MCP, $30.96, Rare Earth REE $9.62, Avalon $4.07. Volume and Technicals indicate these stocks are near break-out conditions.

Smaller Canadian picks: Great West minerals 0.42, Medallion Resources Ltd. 0.59.

Break-out stocks: MCP,REE

TSX Canada: RES, AVL,GWG,MDL

September 10, 2010 The S&P500 1109 has tested 3 bottoms in the past 4 months. ( 1040.78, 1010.91,1039.70) 1 year technical support is near 1040 and resistance is near 1120. If the market closes above 1125-1135 we could see a move higher ( break-out ).  
July 1, 2010

The S&P500 1012, is breaking down. Prior support at 1040,1042 has been broken. We expect some volatility, but the overall market looks to be headed lower. Possible targets for the S&P500 are 956-870. The market has topped with a head and shoulders pattern. As for timing, we could see this downtrend continue for 2 or more months.

Some inverse ETF's worth watching ( breaking out ) : SDS $38.81, FAZ $18.71 , SKF $24.56, TZA $8.82, VXX $32.70 ( nearing a close above the 200 day moving average) , QID $20.55 a 2-3 day close above the 200 day moving average is a bullish.

 
May 5, 2010

The S&P500 has broken technical support. SPY has broken a head and shoulders neckline over the past 28 days at 118.25. 

Traders: VXX, SDS, FAZ have been top performers and may continue to be for 10 days.

 

March 28, 2010

The S&P500 1166 has broken to new highs for the year ( @1180).  Volumes are trending sideways in the past 10 trading sessions, giving no clear direction. Looking at the Russell 2000, IWM, 67.81, we see a new 52 week high made in the past 3 trading days.

Consumer discretionary,  XLY, $33.06 has been climbing in a an uptrend since early March. UltraShort SDS, $31.17, has made a new 52 week low and has broken trough old support at $32.79. With the market in a sideways to slightly bias to the upside, making projections for the next 2-3 weeks could be pointless.

For this update, watch the markets on a technical chart and avoid the pitfall of fundamentals from the media. Please keep all stop-losses in place and avoid pie in the sky price projections.

Break-out stocks: BPO,CCL,MAR,DAL,DENN,EMR,PGR,GRMN,HPQ,HON,VIA.B,LULU.

TSX Canada: CAE,CNR,RY

 
February 21, 2009

The S&P500 1109, could be nearing the point of a reversal after moving higher to the 50 day moving average (now overhead resistance). Volumes are lower than average as the index rises, setting up for a possible sell-off.

In the last sell-off, the S&P500 index trended lower to at 1044.50.  If the current up-trending volumes do not pick up anytime soon, we expect a move lower and a close near the 200 day moving average, 1028.

Reading over some history lessons could help our readers. Following the 1932 to 1937 rally, a downtrend move from 1937 to 1942 followed. The rally into 1937 shows some parallel charting to today. What is different is the time has compressed. The S&P500 crested at 1576 in 2007 and bottomed out at 666 in early 2009. From the top and bottom of the S&P500, a retracement of ( 50%, 1117 ) and (61.8% 1224) are possible. We have seen the market surge higher and pass the 50% re-tracement level of 1117. Assuming the market were to rally again, the upside target is 1224.

Break-out stocks: BIIB,TSN,PWE,SLE,CSE,VSH,BJS,CAG,ROK,CAGC,XEC

TSX Canada:BCE,PWT

 
January 21, 2009

The S&P500 1116, moved lower under high volume. The S&P500 SPDR, SPY, 111.70 dropped 1.92% with 2X average 60 day volumes.

The volume signal from the S&P500 could be a warning of a continued sell off ? For this update we caution our readers to prepare if we the market does go sharply lower ( short term ).

The US dollar climb of the past month has put pressure on commodities. In the last market correction heading to March 2009, the US dollar rallied under the market drop. Should we expect the same correlation if the S&P500 drops to 1000 ?

Gold, GLD, $107.37 has corrected lower and now is nearing the $105 prior consolidation level. The correlation to the dollar and gold could break down at some point. A possible 2nd stimulus package ??? could spike up the market but increase the risk of inflation down the road.

Break-out stocks: SDS,SKF,QID,FAZ

TSX Canada: HXD,HFD

 
December 20, 2009

The S&P500 continues to grid in a trading range. Gold has corrected, but could remain in a longer bullish trend. The Russell 2000 IWM is still off the September 2009 highs. The commodities play has been weakened over the past 2-3 weeks with the USD advance. The next few weeks will have low volumes and will not be reliable for trading signals. A good number of the stock picks are trending higher or breaking out. If the market turns down into January, jump to more defensive positions (sell) and keep stop-losses in place.

Break-out stocks:

ANR,ARM,BEXP,BMY,CENX,GXP,HPQ,IVN,MRVL,MA,NYB,NWS,NU,ORCL,OC,PWER,SBUX,TIE,V,WLL,

TSX Canada: JIN, BXE,CLM,CR,GBU,IVN,GBU,GCE,RR,TKO,WTL,XRC

 
November 7, 2009

The S&P500 rallied Friday under light volumes to close at 1069 . Near term, the chart pattern suggests a head and shoulders topping formation. For the next 5-10 trading days we may see a push higher ?.  Resistance is near 1080. The current topping action would be confirmed if the market fails to move higher on below average volume. 1019 is a key technical support level. If 1019 fails to hold, a drop to 950  is possible. Gold (GLD) continues to move higher.

Break-out stocks:

SDS,GLD,PG,MHS,LIHR,BR

TSX Canada: CEE, HXD,IMG

 
June 29, 2008

Weekend Update:

SP500
At 1278 the SP500 is near support levels. If we see a failure of this support, the next level down is near 1225. It's going to be a very volatile market if we do bounce off support between 1275-1225.   A reversal day to indicate a new short term uptrend would be signaled by a drop near panic and then buying late in the session. A surge in Oil to $150+ could be one day to watch out for.

The DOW at 11,346 has rapidly broken past key support levels of 11,634.
We could see an intra day drop to the 10,750-11,000 support levels.

GM , General Motors $11.55 at an all time weekly low continues to drag on the Market and it's going to take a double bottom before GM moves higher. It does look on longer term charts, GM could stay down for 3-4 months. As GM in the past has been a bellwether of the overall market, a breakout to new lows could also signal the SP500 will be lower in 2 months.

The USD index at 72.29 could be moving lower. USD support is at 71.50. Oil and Gold could move higher if this drop in the dollar were to occur in the next 10-20 trading days.

West Texas Oil $140.21 is positioned to move higher. As we calculated from the June 7th update, a possible spike for oil is $148.57. We have reviewed this forecast and now estimate oil to move to $156. With the continued momentum and news coverage, the most likely case is we have not seen a top. As oil is affected by world events, predictions are not so easy.

USO Oil Fund,USO, $113.75, could be starting up another leg with
112.50-113 as old technical resistance. The Oil fund is moving up, but the action is very choppy. Volumes are 1.2X above average.

ExxonMobil, XOM, $86.55 is trading below the 200 day moving average. Why is XOM trading as if it has reached a 5 year high ? The technical stock pattern is a rounding top over the last 12 months. If XOM is a bellwether for the direction of oil, we have seen a top in the minds of some traders.

Natural Gas $13.20, has moved higher and  now is  paused below  $13.50. In the next 20 trading sessions, we could trade above $13.50 of retrace back to the $12 - $12.50 range.

Break-out Stocks, New Stock Scan Results :

The US traders' notebook is updated with new stop-loss positions for
Ultra Short SP500, SDS , UltraShort Financials SKF , and
CPX.

  • If Gold moves higher above $940 then watch streetTracks Gold, GLD, $91.47 has moved up from last week's price of $88.95. This is a return of just 2.8%. above $92.50 would be a signal GLD could move higher. A possible stop-loss is $89.
  • Goldcorp, GG, $46.36,  a double top breakout above $46-47, a stop-loss at 45 is needed.Goldcorp was on our last week update and continues to perform.
  • Nabours Industries NBR, $49.41, a breakout would be above $51-52 on increased volumes. The pause in the uptrend looks temporary.
  • EXCO Resources, XCO, 36.45 was emailed to our members June 23 as one to watch last week. Its move Friday was an all time high and could move higher. Increase a stop-loss to 34.50 for next week.
  • Walter Industries, WLT, $107.90 spiked on 3X average volume Friday and jumped 10.3%. The stock is a break-out if it were to close above $110-111. Add this to your watch-list for further upward momentum. The company exports Metallurgical coal which has been a hot area for months. Add your stop-loss at $108 if this does break-out to the upside.
 
December 7, 2008 Trader Discipline

Please use stop-losses as some of our new members need to become better traders. A stop-loss does not need to be programmed into a trading platform, just write the number down on a piece of paper in a traders log. If the trade closes below your stop, sell the next day at the best price you can. To become a better trader,  you need to use strict discipline in this market.  It is not the stock/ETF you are in competition with, it is top traders who seek fast money and your losses are their gains.

The Canadian Banks made a big move Friday. Insurance companies moved up with the financials. Will this last ?

CIBC up 12% to 49.88 is nearing the  20 day moving average.  The move Friday was a  small break-out from the $45  area. If the S&P500 were to rally next week, some follow-up in buying could result. Volume is needed to continue this climb. The most optimistic short term target is $54-55 with a US rally starting Monday ? If we see no rally next week, more selling pressure and consolidation is expected.

Great West Lifeco $28 up 33% for the week. The $28 range is the old resistance point. We review this fast 33% move in terms of technicals. Fridays' move of 21% was on high volumes. Can this last ? Unless we have a follow-up surge this next week, the pop could retrace and fall back 10%.

Break-out stocks:
  • Horizons BetaPro Gold Bull HGU $9.44 gained 21.6% for the week million shares or record  volume. We have reached last weeks' upside targets $9.50-10.00 and raise these targets to $12.50. If the Fed drops rates in December, the USD could be under pressure. A new suggested stop-loss is 8-8.25.
  • Goldcorp,G, $35, has gained  12% from last week and met our short term target. A new stop-loss between $29.50-30 is suggested. Short term, if G can move higher than $36 ( the 200 day moving average )  we could see higher targets.
  • Suncor , S, $28.60 has moved up from a triple bottom. A move above $30-31.50 could be a reversal signal. Wait for a buy signal ( volume uptrend ) and place a stop-loss under the the move near $27.50 assuming we are trading at $30-31.50.
 
April 3, 2008

Coal stocks, Weekly Update

Walter Industries  WLT $69.08 up 6.97% today and up 9.8% from March 29 notes.WLT is a technical textbook move. The big question is how high will WLT go before a pause or retracement? We picked WLT back at $44.71 feb 11,2008. JRCC $19.23 James River Coal could be moving up again for a similar breakout as WLT.

Break-out stocks:

XEC $58.03 breakout in progress. HP $48.97 Helmerich & Payne In - slow breakout. MTH $22.78 Meritage Homes - above the 200 day moving average. PQ $18.40  Petroquest Energy - uptrending, NEU $80.85 NewMarket Corp. - a steady uptrend breaking 52 week highs. X US Steel $137.91 up from $125.69 - March 29th notes.

 
March 29, 2008

Break-out stocks:

US steel X $125.69 is nearing a breaking out. Volumes on US Steel need to be 7 million shares with another up tick in price. The market is not providing a clear leadership sector to chase after.

Stock Scans picks:

CSX Corp. CSX $56.65, Kirby Corp. KEX $56.39, Clean Harbours CLHB $65.08, TNS Inc. TNS $21.30, Walter Industries WLT  $62.90 a 52 week high, Comstock Resources  CRK $39.90, Compass Minerals CMP $61.95, and Encore Acquisition Co. EAC $40.17.

A Breakout on the above list must be with above average volume - enter your trade and place a stop-loss.

 
March 27, 2008

XIDE $13.20 is up 11% - take profits. US steel X $121.52 looked to be breaking out, but the  volumes do not support to move. The Golds have indicated a reversal,  but the stocks need more buying momentum.

GLD $93.46 has slowed. JRCC $17.69 James River Coal Company, WLT $62.45 coals have retraced to the old levels - buying the dips would have worked.

On the technical side, the SP500 @ 1325 looks to be rolling over and headed lower - but the low volumes do not indicate this. No new scanned picks to report, as the market is looking for leadership. QID,SDS, TWM Ultrashorts could be added to the watch list.

Email Alerts to our members.

 
March 19, 2008

Across the Board Selling. 

For the most part our picks have held up, XIDE,  HCBK,
NFLX, C,  The sell-off on the SP500 was less volume than the prior days of buying.

At this point the SP500, 1298 is slowly griding higher. As the SP500 touched it's 50 day moving average approx. 1341- a major resistance point was tested.

The SP500, 1256 and 1270  look to be double bottoms - but a wait and see with more testing will be needed.

 
March 18, 2008

Lehman up 46.43% was the big move.

Bear Stearns BSC up 22% to close at $5.91. Speculation of a failed $2/share deal with BSC. Bear Stearns survived the 1929 stock market crash - could it survive the 2008 crash ? XIDE up 5.62%, HCBK up 5% From Monday's SP500 comments, it is looking more like (1) a near term double bottom being formed.

C, $20.71 Citigroup 1.5X volume could signal a buy for Tuesday eve.

Email Alerts sent to our members.

 
  StockPhase.com  
December 30, 2007

Original website and design from Stockphase.com, © 2007

For 2008, the Canadian affiliate TopStockTraders.ca will again focus on the pure Oil, Gold,  Uranium, and Resource based sectors of the TSX and TSX Venture exchanges.

Some hightlights of 2007:

Oilexco , original post $6.42, up to $17.92 or 279% return in 11 months.
North Sea oil exploration upstart. December 18,2006 to Oct 15, 2007

Palidin, Uranium - original pick near $3, up to $9.99 over 12 months

 

US Break-out stocks:

ENS $25.17, Volume up over last 3 weeks. Target price $28. SCHW, $25.54, Steady rise on upper Bollinger band. NLY $18.25, steady rise $17.50 is support.

 

 

 

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