January - February 15, 2008
USA and
Canada
ARCHIVED Traders' NOTEBOOK
CLOSED TRADES AND TRADERS NOTES
Monday Feb 11, 2008
Arch Coal ACI up 6.5%, OFG up 5.95%, CNX breakout, up 4.41% , BZP up 4.15%, WLT - breakout signal at $45.50 , JRCC - near double top breakout.
Friday Feb 08
CMO $17.36 breakout, see jan 23 note. GLD near breakout. DBA, MFA, BZP top picks added.
Thusday Feb 7.
NLY $21 a star uptrend. Added a few top stock picks: R, OFG, MEE, ACI
The SP500 has a lower support level of 1300 near term. The Dow, lower support at 1200-1180.
ProShares Ultra Short SDS, TWM are good picks for this reversal.
Proshares ETF - short and long funds.
February 14,2008
HXD 21.85, ( short position) stop-out. Market has moved higher. HXD is a good bet for further weakness.
ELR $3.33 Eastern Platinum moving in a breakout
February 13,2008
TIM $17.50 up 9.5% ( Solar play ) - Timminco is looking strong, could reach old high of $23.
FDG $45.45 Fording Coal, add to the watchlist. It's off a high but could move higher.
| Date
|
TICKER |
PRICE |
STOP |
TARGET |
Comments |
| feb 14 |
OFG |
19.27 |
Stop-out,
lock in profits 5.18% |
||
| feb 13 |
OFG |
20.24 |
19.27 |
up 8.12% today , increase stop-loss |
|
| feb 11 |
OFG |
19.41 |
18.10 |
up 5.95%, increase stop-loss |
|
| feb 07 |
OFG |
18.32 |
17 |
Oriental
Financial group. Fast
uptrend, Could be 70% past breakout ? Fast traders could jump in with a close stop-loss. |
|
| feb 12 |
ACI |
51 |
stop-out,
3.84% |
||
| feb 11 |
ACI |
54.76 |
51 |
up 6.5%, increase stop |
|
| feb 08 |
ACI |
51.42 |
48.40 |
above
the breakout, close up 4.7% today, volume increasing |
|
| feb 07 |
ACI |
49.11 |
46 |
Arch
Coal, near a breakout. 50
and above is the breakout. |
|
| feb 13 |
SDS |
63 |
Stop
- out of this short position |
||
| feb 11 |
SDS |
64 |
63 |
still
climbing, volumes indicate trend is weaker. The Market direction is
unclear |
|
| Feb
05 |
SDS |
63.80 |
60.45 |
72-74 |
-
see top stock #2, buy signal on market weakness. |
| feb 13 |
TWM |
80 |
Stop
- out of these short positions |
||
| feb 11 |
TWM |
82.75 |
80 |
falling
on low volumes, possible divergence, again market direction
unclear. |
|
| feb
05 |
TWM |
81.30 |
77.50 |
97 |
-
see top stock #1, buy signal on market weakness. |
| feb
04 |
WLT |
43 |
Stop-out,
Still in uptrend. |
||
| feb
04 |
WLT |
44.77 |
43 |
Increase
stop-loss or take profits. Up 9.6 %
from buy signal |
|
| feb
02 |
WLT |
44.03 |
42.90 |
Up
5.56% Friday , Increase stop-loss to last support 42.90. |
|
| jan
29 |
WLT |
42.20 |
39 |
Up
stop loss. Volumes remain above average. |
|
| jan
26 |
WLT |
40.83 |
38 |
Walter
Industries.A close over
42 would confrim a breakout. WLT is a leading producer and exporter of metallurgical coal for the global steel industry and also produces steam coal, coal bed methane gas, furnace and foundry coke and other coal-based products. |
|
| feb
13 |
JRCC |
16.89 |
15.0 |
up 14% on breakout. |
|
| feb
11 |
JRCC |
15.13 |
14.0 |
increase
stop, volume surge - could be another
double top breakout |
|
| feb
08 |
JRCC |
14.64 |
13.50 |
resistance
near $15, increase stop |
|
| feb
05 |
JRCC |
Take
some profits, 13.71 was the high of the day. |
|||
| feb
4 |
JRCC |
14 |
13 |
Up
another 3.4% monday ,Increase stop-loss or take profits, up 30.4% from the buy signal. |
|
| feb
2 |
JRCC |
13.53 |
12 |
Up 10% friday. Increase stop
loss or sell and lock in profits. |
|
| jan
31 |
JRCC |
12.24 |
11.24 |
Increase
stoploss. local resistance at 12. |
|
| jan
29 |
JRCC |
11.42 |
10.80 |
increase
stop-loss, nearing resistance of 11.94. |
|
| jan
26 |
JRCC |
10.73 |
9.50 |
James
River Coal, 11.94 is breakout. StockPhase 1 - base formed , Risky but trend is turning up over the 200 day Moving Average. |
|
| feb 06 |
FDG |
45 |
Stop-out,
The trend was weakening short term. Longer term ? |
||
| feb 05 |
FDG |
45.58 |
45 |
Increase
stop-loss, or sell. General market risks of a downturn. $49.35 could have been the near term top ? |
|
| feb 02 |
FDG |
46.25 |
44.25 |
Up
3.61% friday. Increase- stop loss |
|
| jan
31 |
FDG |
44.61 |
Still
looking to breakout, add to your watchlist. |
||
| jan
26 |
FDG |
44.21 |
40.50 |
52 |
Fording
Coal. 4 day volume surge to 52 week high. Coal from China's snow storms is spiking up prices - short term ? |
| feb
05 |
GLD |
88 |
Stop-out.
High of 92.58 on this last uptrend. |
||
| jan
25 |
GLD |
90.30 |
88 |
Gold
shares have made very bullish advances in the last few days. Another 52 week high. GLD is safer than the gold shares. StreetTracks Gold ETF (GLD) |
|
| feb
11 |
CMO |
17.29 |
16.60 |
Increase
stop loss |
|
| feb
08 |
CMO |
17.36 |
15.90 |
up 9.6% today, breakout
move. Capstead Mortgage corp. |
|
| jan
25 |
CMO |
15.70 |
High
$16.89 , stop out at
15.70. Uptrend still in place. |
||
| jan
23 |
CMO |
16.18 |
15.70 |
Only
stock to make the scan
list. It's low volume - add to the watchlist only. Proof some high flyers made it in the big downturn. |
|
| feb
07 |
NLY |
21.00 |
20 |
up
2.74% today. Uptrend continues, increase stop-loss |
|
| feb
05 |
NLY |
20.44 |
19.40 |
Another
uptrending day, - during extreme market weakness. |
|
| feb
02 |
NLY |
19.99 |
19.20 |
Still
on an uptrend from december. A pop or drop is due. |
|
| jan
25 |
NLY |
19.04 |
19 |
High
of $20.22, On the watchlist. Uptrend has weakened on high volumes. A pullback to 17.50 ? |
|
| jan
22 |
NLY |
19.82 |
19 |
Big
up-move, 8% on 15 milllion
shares. This was first posted back dec 30 @ $18.25 as a breakout. |
|
| jan
22 |
TWM |
87.44 |
Exit
on stop , 4.7% profit |
||
| Jan
22 |
TWM |
90.71 |
87.44 |
Increase
stop. We reached 97.69 and reversed . Still on upper Bolinger Band. |
|
| jan
22 pre- market |
TWM |
100 |
Near
term bottom. The news is as bad as it gets - we could see a sharp rebound in the next 2 weeks. Increase Stop-losses. SP support near 1274 - Target to get out of short positions. |
||
| Jan
17 |
TWM |
87.72 |
84.50 |
Top
Stock #1, Up 5
%, increase stoploss |
|
| jan
15 |
TWM |
83.50 |
80 |
Ultrashort,
Russel 2000 Pro-fund shares |
|
| jan
22 |
SDS |
66 |
Sold
, $70, 2 min after open bell. $70 - $60.50 = 15.7% profits Stop increase to $66 - if you are long. |
||
| jan
22 pre- market |
SDS |
73-75 |
-
same comments as TWM. , Increase stop-loss. |
||
| jan
17 |
SDS |
64.85 |
62 |
Top
Stock #2 ,up
7.1%, increase stoploss |
|
| jan
15 |
SDS |
60.50 |
59 |
Ultrashort
S+P 500, Profund Shares, Triple top breakout |
|
| jan 22 |
mzz |
70 |
Exit
on Stop. Profit = 8.5 % |
||
| jan 22 |
mzz |
71.15 |
70 |
Increase
stop, Volume is in 3 day spike. |
|
| jan
22 pre- market |
MZZ |
Bid
73 pre-market. Increase stop-losses. |
|||
| jan
17 |
MZZ |
69.32 |
66.50 |
up
7.2%, increase stoploss |
|
| jan
15 |
MZZ |
64.65 |
62 |
Ultrashort
MID cap 400 Profund shares, steady rise |