February 16 to March 17, 2008 USA and Canada

ARCHIVED Traders' NOTEBOOK

CLOSED TRADES AND TRADERS NOTES


Monday March 17, at the close The SP500 at 1276 is either (1) near a double bottom reversal or (2)  going to  take out the Jan 1270 low and move to 1225 support. Lehman Brothers down 19% to $31.75 on a volume of  224 million looks like the new big storey. These moves are once in a lifetime to most traders. Hudson City Bankcorp. HCBK  $17.01 looks to be breaking out.

Monday March 17, pre-market  News of the $2/share sale of Bear Stearns last traded at $30 was the wake up call. Overseas markets have sold off overnight. Our stock pick watchlist of SDS, QID, and TWM are possible picks. Monday could the next down-leg in a market where fear is starting to grip the market. A capitulation "bottom" will need high volumes. Email Alert sent to our members pre-market

Friday March 14, Close At the market open, Traders were be ready to cover short positions. The market could have broke-out. Technically we could have made a short term bottom, however news from the bailout by JPMorgan is why stock picking is tough these days. The gold stocks Kinross KGC $26.84, Goldcorp GG $45.59, GLD $98.71 remain in a bull uptrend. Very few stock are breaking out on new highs with 2X volume.

Wednesday March 12 Close,  DBC $38.91 DB Commodities tracking index continues to make new highs.
XIDE $11.89 Exide Technologies looks to be breaking out over $12. USO $86.92 United States Oil Fund - another new high- the volumes the past 2 days are 2X normal.
Retail Sales number are out Thursday 8:30 ET - These could be market moving numbers.

Wednesday - March 12 AM,  Email to members pre-market open

Monday March 10 Ultrashort SP500 SDS, Ultrashort QID, TWM, DBC in uptrend. QID +14.73% , TWM  +13.70% and SDS  + 16.8% from the Email Alert feb 29. SHY $84.26 1-3Treasury Bond Fund, GSG $60.55, FXY $98.33 Japanese yen trust, ishares TIP Bond Fund TIP $111.52, Short Dow 30 DOG  $66.70,  SKF $140.25 Ultrashort Financials , United States Natural gas fund UNG $48.90  - all are trending higher on a day of uncertainty.  All  of the above were identified on Stock Scan version 8.1, at least our code is working.

Saturday March 08  Weakness remains on the Markets. We did not see the panic selling to indicate a bottom has formed. Traders are still rotating from sector to sector. Natural Gas stocks have done well. Gold, Agricultural, Coal and Raw materials have been leading the markets higher. XOM $82.49 ExxonMobil is now trading below it's 200 day moving average and 50 day moving average. This could be a signal the Oil price is going down. Suncor in Alberta's Heavy Oil Sands SU $106.78 is also failing to make new highs as oil breaks records. When the market sells off on fear and high volume, a local bottom will have formed.

Email Alerts will continue to be sent as the market action may signal extreme weakness or a buying opportunity.
Again Membership is free. It's faster for us to email alerts than update these spreadsheets.
Our stock pick tables below have been cleaned up, several expired trades have been moved to the Archived Trades

Thursday March 06 The SP500 closed at 1304. Below 1300, the next support is 1270. We are at the bottom of support level and it's back up or the next leg down. If things don't improve, the next leg down is the most likely case. SDS $67.12 up 4.5%, TWM $91.02 up 6.91% and QID $55.22 up 4.8%. Proshares Ultrashort SP500 , SDS remains the #1 USA BEAR pick. Sold MTL at 9.9% profit. Stopped out of CHK at 4.9% profit. Stay defensive, the  Feb. jobs report is out Friday (am) - This could be a market mover.

Wednesday, March 05  Mechel Steel Group MTL $140.47 could be near a local top. The original buy signal was at $126.83 or now up 10.3%. Take some profits. GLD $97.72 Gold, another 52 week high. Walter Industries, WLT,  $57.99 up 29.7% from the buy signal of $44.71. Take some profits. 
AKSteel Holding Corp. closed at $55.90 steel - added to the breakout list.

Tuesday, March 04 - We stopped out of several picks today. JRCC James river coal's run ended from $10.73 to $16.50 (stopped out) and closed at $17.84. As the market started selling off at 2pm a reversal started the buying. Gold sold off  nearly $20 and could signal more volatility. Today's sell-off has triggered several stop-loss points. BRKR $14.83 Bruker Corp. added to the breakout list - 5 days of increased volume.

Monday, March 03 - Our Email Alert to members Sunday eve --> Stillwater Mining Company SWC at $20.53, it closed up today 7.94% to $22.16. Our Second pick Sunday, Valence Technology VLNC  jumped from $3.67 to $3.94 or up 7.36%.
Worth noting today, BZP picked back on feb 08 at $14.71 jumped 17% today to close at  $18.55.
Another pick in the uptrend, Coal producer WLT up 29.9% from the original buy signal, up 6% today.

Friday, Feb 29 - Email Alert to our members 15 minutes after the opening bell to take cover. A buy signal went out for SDS, TWM, and QID. This move was expected  and was discussed Thursday.
- we added back Finance news clips, update on the right side menu. Please give us an email if our news clips are not working on all pc's.

Thursday, Feb 28For the SP500 1380 pre-market,we are at the 500 day moving average (1390) to cap the rise. So short term we are in a trading range with 1215 a near term lower target. Trading volumes do not indicate a bottom has been made on the SP500. SDS, TWM, and QID remain on our watch list. MTL remains strong. Golds remain in a strong uptrend. GLD,KGC target $28-29. Stop-loss points have been updated in our trading table below. DBA - sell signal.

Wednesday Feb 27 - Premarket Email Alert sent out to our members with over 20 Stock picks from our Stock Scan version 8.1.- join up today.

Monday, Feb 25. As the SP500 1371 approaches it's 50 day moving average - upper resistance is at 1395.
XTO breakout, TWM, SDS are near the 50 day support level - both are Insurance for market meltdowns.
CMP up 6.14% , COG up 3.48% Cabot Oil and Gas, CHK up 3.98% Chesapeake ( GAS), DBA up 3%
MEE up 7.52% breakout, WLT up 5.62% - some nice profits on several stock today.

Friday Feb 22The SP 500 @ 1345 in a triangle formation. A drop down is possible. Position yourself for a defensive downside breakout. GLD $93.45  uptrend in place. XEC $49.86 worth noting - strong mover.

Wednesday Feb 20 , A Big move in WLT up 10%, CHK $44.84, and COT$49.32 still on the move . We added XTO Energy today, the close was $58.60

Tuesday Feb 19, Gold stocks could move higher, Kinross Gold KGC $22.15 signal emailed
to the members before the market open. Closed at 23.03. COG another move up 3.75%. James River Coal JRCC - take some off the table, reward yourself on this explosive move.

Date
Ticker
Price
Stop
Target
Comments, EA = Email Alert
mar 06
BRKR

14.25

Stop-out, General market weakness across the markets
mar 05
BRKR
15.09
14.25

Increase-stop
mar 04
BRKR
14.83
13.75

Bruker Corp. added to the breakout. - 5 days of increased volume.
mar 04
VLNC

3.60

Stop-out, weakness from the open.
mar 03
VLNC
3.94
3.60

Up 7%, Increase stop-loss
mar 02
VLNC
3.67

EA
Email Alert, Valence Technology, a nice breakout and uptrend.
For last week it was up 21%
mar 06
MTL



Sold at $139.50,  9.9% profits
mar 05
MTL
140.47
135
EA
Topping ? Take 50% off the table.
mar 04
MTL
138.37
135

Uptrend  is slowing near 140, take profits or increase stop.
feb 29
MTL
132.05
130

Take some profits or increase stop-loss
feb 28
MTL
135.66
125

Increase stop,  Volumes have increased on rise.
feb 22
MTL
126.83
118

Mechel Steel Group, Breakout in progress.
mar 04
SWC
20.64
20.30

$22.72 was the day's high, stopped-out intraday $20.30
mar 03
SWC
22.16
20.30

Up 7.94 % Increase stop-loss, Uptrending volumes
mar 02
SWC
20.53

EA
Email Alert, Stillwater Mining Co on the NYSE has been on major uptrend.The move could be 80% done ?






mar 3
XTO
63.13

62
Stop-out, 5.8% return
feb 27
XTO
60.58
60
62
Trend is slowing, Increase stop loss
feb 25
XTO
59.52
57

Increase stop-loss, breakout in progress
feb 20
XTO
58.60
56

XTO Energy, Breakout , $56.86
mar 04
KGC

24.50

Stop-out, Uptrend could be in place ?
mar 03
KGC
26.20
24.50

Increase stop-loss, increased volumes in the uptrend is positive
feb 27
KGC
24.62
23.90
28
A move above the triangle pattern, 28-29 is  a possible near term target
feb 20
KGC
23.63
22

Kinross Gold Breakout of triangle in progress.
feb 19
KGC
22.15
21.90
EA
Kinross Gold,  breakout of a triangle. Golds are moving
mar 04
COG

48.50

Stop-out, top is forming, 5.3% profits
feb 28
COG
49.46
48.50

A drop on larger volumes, increase stop-loss.
feb 25
COG
50.55
48

up 3.48%, increase stop-loss
feb 20
COG
49.37
47

up another 3%, increase stop-loss
feb 19
COG
47.86
45.90

up another 3.75% Increase stop-loss
feb 14
COG
46.05
43.70

Cabot Oil and Gas, up 5.86%, double top breakout
mar 06
CHK

45

Stop-out, 4.9% profits
mar 05
CHK
46.50
45

Volumes are building, Upside breakout could follow.
feb 28
CHK
45.35
45

Increase stop-loss
feb 25
CHK
46.22
43.50

Up 3.98% today Increase stop-loss.Now up 7.7% from buy signal
Feb20
CHK
44.84
42.80

Up 2.73% today, increase stop-loss
feb 14
CHK
42.89
41.25
48
Chesapeake ( Gas)
Breakout in progress, 4th day of the rally on above average volumes.
mar 03
DAR

13.30

$14.38 was the high in the short term trend, Trade is stopped out. 3.58% profits
feb 27
DAR
13.55
13.30

The trend is a rounding top, Increase stop-loss, Volumes have dropped
feb 13
DAR
13.34
12.70

up 3.89 % Breakout
feb 12
DAR
12.84
12.25

Darling Intl. Corp. Breakout on close.
feb 29
PETD

71

Sold,
feb 27
PETD
72.18
70

Increase stop-loss, A larger volume with no upside could have been the top - sell signal.
feb 22
PETD
71.12
68.25

Momentum is slowing, Increase stop
feb 13
PETD
70.69
67.50

moving higher, volumes could be higher
feb 12
PETD
69.71
65

Petroleum Development Corp. Rapid Climb, Watch for buy point. The move
was fast to the upside.$70 could be a "measured move".
feb 28
DBA
42.46
40.50

Sell signal. A high volume spike. Local top is forming.Or reset the trailing-stop loss.
feb 22
DBA
40.95
39.45

Steady rise, Increase stop-loss
feb 19
DBA
40.07
38

Steady climb resumes
feb 08
DBA
39.03
37

PowerShares DB Multi-Sector Commodity Trust Agriculture Fund (DBA)
A steady climb. We could be (a) 50% in the rise, or (b) it's just going up.
feb 22
BZP

15.40

Stop-out, 4.69% return
feb 13
BZP
15.95
15.40

Up 6% today ,  Increase stop-loss
feb 11
BZP
15.32
14.25

up 4.15%, Increase stop,
feb 08
BZP
14.71
13.25

BPZ Resources. $15 is breakout. volume signal needed.
feb 27


41

Stop - out, 2.75% profit
feb 25
MEE
43.48
41

up 7.52% today The breakout is on.
feb 11
MEE
40.82
39.50

At breakout, higher volumes needed for buy signal.
feb 07
MEE
39.90
37.50

Massey Energy, near a breakout. Volumes need to increase. add to Watchlist
mar 06
WLT
57.74


Sold @ $58.50,  30.84% profits
mar 05
WLT
57.99
55

Increase stop, momentum pause, Take some profits
mar 03
WLT
58.13
53

Increase stop, A nice run up 29.9 % from our #2 buy signal
feb 29
WLT
54.63
52.50

Increase stop - protect profits.
feb 27
WLT
53.52
51.50

Increase stop.
feb 25
WLT
54.11
49.50

up 5.62% today, Increase-stop
feb 22
WLT
51.23
49

Increase stop-loss, pause in climb, lock in some profits
feb 20
WLT
51.46
47

Up 10% today, Increase stop-loss
feb 13
WLT
46.90
45

up 6.7 %, next upleg, volumes could be higher but a move up.
feb 11
WLT
44.71


Walter Industries. Close to breakout again, $45.50 and high volume is breakout signal. $40.83 was the original buy signal - alert.
feb 27


57.40

Gap down, Sold on weakness.
feb 22
KMP
59.35
57.75

Steady rise, Volumes are not spiking but the trend is up.
feb 11
KMP
58.27


Very close to a pop
feb 08
KMP
57.75
56.50

58.50 is breakout - watch for volume and price pop.
JAN 31
KMP
57.39
55.50

Increase stop-loss.
jan 26
KMP
56.14
55

Kinder Morgan Energy LP. Triple top breakout. A move over 57 on high volume
is needed to confirm new breakout.
mar 03
JRCC

16.50

stop-out, 53.77% profits
feb 28
JRCC
17.40
16.50

Increase stop
feb 19
JRCC
16.50


Take some profits.
feb  13
JRCC
16.89
15.0

up 14% on breakout.
feb 11
JRCC
15.13
14.0

increase stop, volume surge - could be another double top breakout
feb 08
JRCC
14.64
13.50

resistance near $15, increase stop
feb 05
JRCC



Take some profits, 13.71 was the high of the day.
feb 4
JRCC
14
13

Up another 3.4% monday ,Increase stop-loss or take profits,
up 30.4%
from the buy signal.
feb 2
JRCC
13.53
12

Up 10% friday. Increase stop loss or sell and lock in profits.
jan 31
JRCC
12.24
11.24

Increase stoploss. local resistance at 12.
jan 29
JRCC
11.42
10.80

increase stop-loss,  nearing resistance of 11.94.
jan 26
JRCC
10.73
9.50

James River Coal, 11.94 is breakout. StockPhase 1 - base formed ,
Risky but  trend is turning up over the 200 day  Moving Average.
feb 15
CNX

75

Stop out, 2.72% profit
feb 11
CNX
80.96
75

Breakout, volume could be a little low.
feb 08
CNX
77.54


52 week high, a breakout is close. High volume signal needed.
feb 04
CNX
76.68


rising on low volumes,  not triggering any buy signals. - divergence
jan
CNX



 high 77.23 jan 29. uptrend or double top ?
jan 26
CNX
73.01
70

Consol Energy, Break-out at $74.18, Very active volumes in last 3 days.
Spike volume jan 24 2X volumes.
mar 03
NLY

20.25

Stop-out, 2.16% profit
feb 29
NLY
20.69
20.25

The trend is weaker. Take the profits.
feb 22
NLY
20.92
20

After almost stopping out, were moving up. Keep stop at 20
feb 07
NLY
21.00
20

up 2.74% today. Uptrend continues, increase stop-loss
feb 05
NLY
20.44
19.40

Another uptrending day, - during extreme market weakness.
feb 02
NLY
19.99
19.20

Still on an uptrend from december. A pop or drop is due.
jan 25
NLY
19.04
19

High of  $20.22,  On the watchlist. Uptrend has
 weakened on high volumes. A pullback to 17.50 ?
jan 22
NLY
19.82
19

Big up-move, 8% on 15 milllion shares. This was first posted back
dec 30 @ $18.25 as a breakout.


Stock Picks for Toronto TSX  
Top Stock Traders.com


Historical Traders Notes, March 2008


Monday March 17, close
Oils are looking weak after a long run.The Energy Select Sector  XLE $72.15 index on the AMEX dropped below the 200 day moving average on above average of 31 million shares. The XLE has a head and shoulders top and is telling us the bullish run in energy is weakening - or paused.

Monday March 17, pre-market  Canadian Banks,  BMO could see additional pressures on the open. News of the $2/share sale of Bear Stearns last traded at $30 was the wake up call. Overseas markets have sold off overnight. Our stock pick watch-list with a theme of safety is needed.  HXD $21.27, Gold has reached a high of  over $ 1025 usd overnight. The Asian markets - which were to save the world ....are now trading below their respective 200 day moving averages and selling off. Hang Seng down -5% overnight.

Friday March 14, Close XIU $78.63 continues to be in a trading range between 77 and 82. Technically, we are below the 200 day moving average and drifting lower. The last 2 volume surges have been to the downside and this does suggest a re-test of the January low ahead - XIU of 70.71 was the Jan low. BMO $40.17 another 52 week low, or back 5 years ago to 2003 for support levels. Traders hold off on bank stocks till we see a double bottom. Investors - wait till the banks break over the 50 and 200 day moving averages or stockphase1 moving to stockphase 2. ECA $78.50 Encana, a natural gas play, continues to trend higher. Goldcorp G $44.88 has just made a small move above old resistance. Kinross Gold K $26.51 continued uptrend. The Canadian Oils are looking very weak and in a down trend. PCA $46.17 is below the 50/200 day moving averages and the 200 day moving average is turning down. Are the lower trending oil stocks forecasting the move in World Oil by investors ?

Wednesday March 12, close
  Cresent point energy trust $28.60 remains in an uptrend. HAT $2.39 has been a winner during the market madness. HAT surged on a Uranium discovery and has been added to the watch list. Over $2.55 would be a nice breakout with above average volume - the buy signal.

Wednesday - March 12 AM,  Email to members pre-market open,

Monday March 10  EnerGulf Resources added to the watch list ENG $3.72. HXD $22.17 is up 7.8 % from original email alert feb 27. Our Stock Scans did not return any reliable stockphase 2 stocks worth posting. HXD remains a holding till we reach a short term bottom. XIU $77 dropped on fairly low volumes - this drop is a warning as we are back below the 50 day and 200 day moving averages. Suncor SU $103.48 dropped 2.13% on a day where we have West Texas breaking upward of $108 usd. The banks look to have slowed the drop. The resource sector gold, coal, platinum, and oils are weakening. Timminco TIM $17.96 took a 8.8% drop - Solar may not be the best bet if oil prices were to weaken. A double top at $23.31 is a technical signal TIM may not be moving higher.

Saturday March 08 
The big banks are pulling the Market lower. One thing to note, Oil stocks are not breaking 52 week highs. Nortel was the market king in 2000. Resource stocks have had the same run as Nortel back in 1997 to 2000. Suncor $105.73 looks to have formed a head and shoulders top. If Suncor breaks $112 again, this would be a good sign the Oil trend is up again. Canadian Natural Resources CNQ at $73.37 is also griding lower. Above $80 CNQ would be breaking out. These are short term observations which for now which indicate Oil is not moving higher.

The stock picks below have been cleaned up, several expired trades have been moved to the Archived Trades


March 06, Thursday The Banks may be looking oversold, but hold off till we start to see at least a double bottom. Tuesday BMO looked oversold, now BMO $41.97 is just panic selling. HXD Horizon Betapro TSX 60 BearPlus our top Canadian bear stock pick from feb 27 is up $21.15 or 3.9% today. Oil and Gold are keeping this market alive. If Gold or Oil sell off, the TSX could have a very fast correction in this commodities bull market. XIU $78.70 is now trading below the 200 day moving average.

March 05, Wednesday
Eastern Platinum ELR $4.07  up another 4.9 % on 17.5 million shares. Now up 22.2% from feb 13 buy signal. Goldcorp made up for yesterday's loss. G $43.88 up 3.32%. Birchcliff Energy $9.85 BIR has broken out of a triangle formation up 3.79% today.

March 04 Tuesday Eastern Platinum ELR $3.88  up 6% on 20 million shares. A sharp $20 oz. sell-off on gold. As we have no way to enter into these trades with a crystal ball, please protect yourself by setting your stop-loss on entry to the trade. During these market meltdowns, sell if you are sitting on profits or just want to sit it out. HXD $20.70 has moved up and remains one of our holdings ( #1 Top Bear Market pick for Canada). BMO Bank of Montreal $46.89 could be oversold and near a short term bounce.


Feb 29 Friday
 
Email Alert to our members 15 minutes after the opening bell to take cover. A buy signal went out for HXD @ 20.02. This move was expected  and was discussed Thursday.

Feb 28 Thursday 
A big run-up on the TSX. At some point we could have a big drop and follow the US market lower. XIU shares at $81.41 MAJOR upper "resistance " at $82.45. This upper resistance is strong and the market would need to have a some signal the US will not pull Canada into a recession next.

Feb 25, Monday
Uranium up - DML Denision Mines up 8.70% from friday's pick. Sold GCE at a 88.8% return.
Potash up again 3% POT $163.45. KCL $4.97 in breakout on high volumes.


Return to top


Date    
Ticker
Price
Stop
Target
Comments,  EA = Email Alert                                                               
mar 04
SOR

3

Stop-out
feb 28
SOR
3.30
3

Solana Resources. Smaller volumes - but in a breakout
mar 03
DML

8.80

Stop-out, 10.97 % return
feb 29
DML
9.05
8.80

Increase stop on TSX market weakness.
feb 28
DML
9.50
8.50
10.45
up 7% today, Increase stop-loss. Upper resistance near $10-10.50
feb 25
DML
8.62
8.30

up 8.70%, Volume 2-3X normal. Increase stop-loss.
feb 22
DML
7.93


Denision Mines, upside resistance at $10. Volumes are building on a uptrend
from a double bottom. Keep an eye on Uranium prices.
mar 07
POT
153.71
152

stop-out
feb 25
POT
163.45
152

Increase stop-loss
feb 22
POT
158.52


Potash Corp. - demand from China. A long uptrend continues.
mar 03
PD

21.50

Stop-out, 5.2% profits
feb 29
PD
21.85
21.50

The move up has slowed, Increase stop or take profits
feb 28
PD
22.43
21

This would be early in a new run, set stop-loss
feb 25
PD
22


A chance a retracement to 20.52 or the 200 day moving average.
Feb 22
PD
20.42


Uptrend in place. The stock is nearing it's 200 day moving average. A breakout could occur near $22. There is a chance it could also break down as the 200 day is resistance.
mar 04
K

24.50

Stop-out, Gold sold off $20 nearly oz, 3.68% profits
mar 03
K
25.90
24.50

Volumes are high, Increase stop-loss.
feb 29
K
24.35
23.50

Kinross Gold , above 25-26 would be a good breakout signal.
Feb 19
K
23.63


Golds continue to be in a bull market. Kinross looking to breakout.
It's move is a breakout - but volumes are missing. Add to the watchlist.
mar 06
ELR

3.90

Stop-out, 17.1 % profits
mar 05
ELR
4.07
3.90
EA
up 4.9%, Increase stop, High volume of 17.5 million
mar 04
ELR
3.88
3.65

up 6%,    Increase stop, intraday spike to $4.18 on 20 million
mar 03
ELR
3.66
3.50

Increase stop, Steady rise
feb 28
ELR
3.57
3.37

Increase stop, Higher volumes have been on upticks
feb 22
ELR
3.44
3.30

Trend continues up. Resistance near $3.51
feb 13
ELR
3.33
3.25

Eastern Platinum moving in a steady uptrending breakout
mar 03
TIM



Gapping down, SELL signal , 20 % profits
feb 29
TIM
21.37
21

It looks like a double top near 23.30 is in place. Increase stop or sell.
feb 22
TIM
22.85
20

up 24% today. Increase stop-loss.
feb 13
TIM
17.50
16
23
up 9.5% today. Volume are building. It's possible it could reach $23.
feb 25
GCE

3.40

Stop out, We are out of this position - a long run 
88.8%
return
feb 22
GCE
3.60
3.40

Again, a traling stop-loss will lock in profits. I would not buy more unless
I was sure the fundametals are going up.
Feb 19
GCE
3.42

EA
Grande Cache Coal. First buy signal was emailed to our members at $1.75. Our second buy on "stop" was posted at $1.80. Keep increasing these traling stops.Take profits as mentioned in prior notes.
feb 11
GCE
3.12


Sell signal, up 83% from buy signal. This is a parabolic rise. Take some profits.
feb 02
GCE

1.80

Buy on Stop @ $1.80 signal as the stock jumped, retracement to 1.80 likely.
jan 31
GCE
1.66


On the Watchlist, as coal prices firm up with winter storms in China.
Grande Cache
feb 13
HXD

21.90

Stopped - out
feb 05
HXD
22.67
21.90
25-27
Bear fund for the TSX 60 index ( short position)
jan 22
hxd



Sold at $25,a 15% return
jan 21
hxd
25.88
25

Increase stop-loss
jan 17
hxd
23.60
22.99

Increased stop-loss
jan 15
hxd
21.72
21.70
25
Bear Fund for the TSX 60. ( short position)