Canadian Traders' Notes and Stock
Picks -
Archived
for March 18 to April 15, 2008
Thursday April 3, close GCE Grande Cache Coal $5.75 another 10% move today, Our original pick for GCE was Jan 26 at $1.66. It's too late to chase, but it's worth noting some 346% moves are in this market. Watch TIM $26.70 Timminco for another breakout signal above $27.50 - Recent volumes are mainly to the upside. WTN $4.10 up 7% on breakout. A pullback in the coals could be a better buy point.
Tuesday April 1, close Financials HFU $15.16 up 5% on high volumes. HFU has upside resistance at $15.50 to $16. Fording Coal $55.07 a slow grid higher. Gold stock are moving toward lower support levels in the short
term. Petro-Canada PCA $44.69 is off it's high of $61.50 last summer. The market remains cautious of Oil stocks.
Monday March 31 Financials looking strong, HFU $14.41 up 6% on high volumes. Great West Life Insurance GWO $30.96 up 4.8%- Trading range of $34 or $27 lower support. The move could rise to the 200 day moving average of $34 .NML Up 11% , PD up 1.7% .
Saturday March 29 Precision Drilling PD $23.50 is making a slow move to the upside (stockphase 1-->2) PD is above the 200 day moving average of $19.71. In cases where a move has just crossed the 200 day moving average, the stock may correct back to the breakout. A better buy signal for Precision would be a surge on high volume. PD is added to the watch list.
TransAlta Utilities, TA $31.74 is making a reversal as indicated by volume.
Hathor Exploration, $2.56 , HAT- V Added to the holdings as a spec play - see traders notes below. http://www.hathor.ca
NML, $1.70 , Surging volumes and a breakout at friday's close. The risk level is high, 8/10. This should be considered a spec play. A retracement to $1. 50 could be in the cards? Set Stop at $1.46 for support level.
New Millennium Capital Corp. ( NML: TSX-V) is a Canadian, publicly-traded mining company aiming to develop the Millennium Iron Range through 80% ownership of the LabMag Iron Ore Project in Labrador and 100% ownership of the KéMag Iron Ore Project in Québec. The Millennium Iron Range comprises one of the largest known undeveloped magnetite iron ore deposits currently under development in the world. http://www.nmlresources.com/
Thursday March 27,close Grande Cache Coal $4.85 up 9.7%. We watched this rise back in mid-january under $1. It's not time to put new money to work here, but it's nice to see some pops in the coal market. Fording Coal FDG $54.27 is near the 52 week high. Fording may break out to the upside. The Gold stocks have not shown near term price increases but could advance if gold retraces to $1000. Past pick TIM $25.70 rocket up 23% on high volume.- Solar stocks still have investor's attention. TransAlta Utilities, TA $31.06 looks to have made a near term reversal rising toward the 200 day moving average. - Added below.
Wednesday March 26, pre-market. Golds are looking stronger, Goldcorp $40.70, Barrick Gold ABX, $44.15 As gold is in a bull market, profit taking corrections are to be expected so keep stop-loss points in place. The financials are loosing the upward momentum which has been in place a few days. Take some profits - or sell 50% of your position and protect the remainder with a trailing stop-loss.
Monday March 24, close. The Banks including BMO $46.76 and CIBC $66.80 put in a strong day. Our short term target was met on CIBC. With a day like today on both sides of the border, lock in profits. A bear market will zig-zag down.
Friday March 21 Market is closed. The Canadian Banks BMO, CIBC, Royal are showing a trend reversal. BMO up 5.72% $44.51. ABCP restructuring of commercial paper trusts has BMO out of near term problems. The TSX opened with an early low of 12,453 closing up for the day with the highest volume of 2008. We could have put in a local bottom. We see continued buying of the banks next week. HFU Horizon Fund Financials $13.25 could be a good pick for a financial ETF. HFU has a $15 target - or it's 50 day moving average as upper resistance. - see new picks below.BMO, HFU
Wednesday March 19, close The Banks started off in a nice move up Royal Bank RY peaked at $47.82 in the first half hour of trading. CIBC peaked $62.50 early in the session. Banks were pulled down as oils sold off --> PetroCanada PCA down 6.17% , SU Suncor down 6%, and Canadian Natural Resources CNQ $66.67 down 6%. The Oil stock moves were expected in Monday's XLE comments - March 17. Weakness in golds were also noted. Keep your assets diversified . The TSX could be weighted in Oils - like Nortel was in 1999.
Tuesday March 18, close Royal Bank $46.53, CIBC $60.75 could be nearing a local bottom. The stocks look oversold - drifting farther away from the 200 day moving averages. Weakness in the Golds, Kinross K -6.83% will be dropped from the watch list. As the market is failing to go lower on financials, a local or near term bottom could be forming.
for March 18 to April 15, 2008
Sunday April 13 The TSX remains above the 200 day moving average
and
Fridays' volume was weak as the US markets moved lower. The 1.6% drop
Friday
could signal a major reversal , however we will need a major event to
pull down
the TSX - as the index looks to be grinding higher.
At this point, if the US market were to find some footing, the TSX
would have a
rally. Members Emailed new stock picks for the week ahead.
April 7, 9, 11 Members emailed
new stock
picks and traders notes.
Saturday April 5, close
After 3 solid months of posted stock
picks, we hope our
readers have enjoyed some finanical gains.
For the next 3
weeks, members will be emailed traders stock picks and commentary
directly. Our posted web-based traders picks and notes will again be
online
April 28. Alerts are emailed before the markets open as good trading
ideas
arise.
Thursday April 3, close GCE Grande Cache Coal $5.75 another 10% move today, Our original pick for GCE was Jan 26 at $1.66. It's too late to chase, but it's worth noting some 346% moves are in this market. Watch TIM $26.70 Timminco for another breakout signal above $27.50 - Recent volumes are mainly to the upside. WTN $4.10 up 7% on breakout. A pullback in the coals could be a better buy point.
Tuesday April 1, close Financials HFU $15.16 up 5% on high volumes. HFU has upside resistance at $15.50 to $16. Fording Coal $55.07 a slow grid higher. Gold stock are moving toward lower support levels in the short
term. Petro-Canada PCA $44.69 is off it's high of $61.50 last summer. The market remains cautious of Oil stocks.
Monday March 31 Financials looking strong, HFU $14.41 up 6% on high volumes. Great West Life Insurance GWO $30.96 up 4.8%- Trading range of $34 or $27 lower support. The move could rise to the 200 day moving average of $34 .NML Up 11% , PD up 1.7% .
Saturday March 29 Precision Drilling PD $23.50 is making a slow move to the upside (stockphase 1-->2) PD is above the 200 day moving average of $19.71. In cases where a move has just crossed the 200 day moving average, the stock may correct back to the breakout. A better buy signal for Precision would be a surge on high volume. PD is added to the watch list.
TransAlta Utilities, TA $31.74 is making a reversal as indicated by volume.
Hathor Exploration, $2.56 , HAT- V Added to the holdings as a spec play - see traders notes below. http://www.hathor.ca
NML, $1.70 , Surging volumes and a breakout at friday's close. The risk level is high, 8/10. This should be considered a spec play. A retracement to $1. 50 could be in the cards? Set Stop at $1.46 for support level.
New Millennium Capital Corp. ( NML: TSX-V) is a Canadian, publicly-traded mining company aiming to develop the Millennium Iron Range through 80% ownership of the LabMag Iron Ore Project in Labrador and 100% ownership of the KéMag Iron Ore Project in Québec. The Millennium Iron Range comprises one of the largest known undeveloped magnetite iron ore deposits currently under development in the world. http://www.nmlresources.com/
Thursday March 27,close Grande Cache Coal $4.85 up 9.7%. We watched this rise back in mid-january under $1. It's not time to put new money to work here, but it's nice to see some pops in the coal market. Fording Coal FDG $54.27 is near the 52 week high. Fording may break out to the upside. The Gold stocks have not shown near term price increases but could advance if gold retraces to $1000. Past pick TIM $25.70 rocket up 23% on high volume.- Solar stocks still have investor's attention. TransAlta Utilities, TA $31.06 looks to have made a near term reversal rising toward the 200 day moving average. - Added below.
Wednesday March 26, pre-market. Golds are looking stronger, Goldcorp $40.70, Barrick Gold ABX, $44.15 As gold is in a bull market, profit taking corrections are to be expected so keep stop-loss points in place. The financials are loosing the upward momentum which has been in place a few days. Take some profits - or sell 50% of your position and protect the remainder with a trailing stop-loss.
Monday March 24, close. The Banks including BMO $46.76 and CIBC $66.80 put in a strong day. Our short term target was met on CIBC. With a day like today on both sides of the border, lock in profits. A bear market will zig-zag down.
Friday March 21 Market is closed. The Canadian Banks BMO, CIBC, Royal are showing a trend reversal. BMO up 5.72% $44.51. ABCP restructuring of commercial paper trusts has BMO out of near term problems. The TSX opened with an early low of 12,453 closing up for the day with the highest volume of 2008. We could have put in a local bottom. We see continued buying of the banks next week. HFU Horizon Fund Financials $13.25 could be a good pick for a financial ETF. HFU has a $15 target - or it's 50 day moving average as upper resistance. - see new picks below.BMO, HFU
Wednesday March 19, close The Banks started off in a nice move up Royal Bank RY peaked at $47.82 in the first half hour of trading. CIBC peaked $62.50 early in the session. Banks were pulled down as oils sold off --> PetroCanada PCA down 6.17% , SU Suncor down 6%, and Canadian Natural Resources CNQ $66.67 down 6%. The Oil stock moves were expected in Monday's XLE comments - March 17. Weakness in golds were also noted. Keep your assets diversified . The TSX could be weighted in Oils - like Nortel was in 1999.
Tuesday March 18, close Royal Bank $46.53, CIBC $60.75 could be nearing a local bottom. The stocks look oversold - drifting farther away from the 200 day moving averages. Weakness in the Golds, Kinross K -6.83% will be dropped from the watch list. As the market is failing to go lower on financials, a local or near term bottom could be forming.
| Date
|
Ticker |
Price
|
Stop
|
Target
|
Comments,
EA = Email Alert
|
| apr 23 |
PD |
25.58 |
25.00 |
26-30 |
Up 6.3%
Stop-out, Up Trendline near broken. |
| apr 18 |
PD |
26.74 |
25.00 |
26-30 |
Up 13.7% from March 28, Increase
stop-loss Lock in some profits |
| apr 14 |
PD |
25.44 |
24.00 |
26-30 |
Up
8.2%
from March 28 post. Increase
stop |
| apr 10 |
PD |
24.50 |
23.75 |
26-30 |
Increase
stop |
| apr 8 |
PD |
24.45 |
23.50 |
26-30 |
Increase
stop |
| apr 4 |
PD |
24.21 |
23 |
26-30 |
Up
4.7% friday, The 200 day moving average has not turned up, risk is
high, play this as a short term move. |
| mar 28 |
PD |
23.50 |
26-30 |
Precision
Drilling Added to the watchlist. PD added 14% for the week, a long down trend could have ended. Stockphase 1 moving to stockphase 2. We could finally see additional drilling ramp up with a 1.5 year downtrend in activity. |
|
| apr
11 |
WTN |
4.50 |
Up
9.7%, Stop-out |
||
| apr
10 |
WTN |
4.65 |
4.50 |
Pause
in the uptrend |
|
| apr
7 |
WTN |
4.88 |
4.50 |
Up
10% today, Increase Stop-loss |
|
| apr
4 |
WTN |
4.42 |
4.10 |
Up
7.8%, Volume 2X average, uptrend. Stop-loss set. |
|
| apr
3 |
WTN |
4.10 |
Western
Canadian Coal,
Breakout - If GCE is any indication, WTN could be moving higher. A pull back could also be in the cards to $3.50 - $3.70 for a better buy. Stop-losses are needed late in these fast moves. |
||
| apr 23 |
G |
38.97 |
Out
of the position. |
||
| apr 18 |
G |
41.68 |
40 |
head
and shoulders "TOP" ? - use caution |
|
| apr 14 |
G |
40.81 |
39.50 |
Slow
Uptrend - higher lows |
|
| apr 11 |
G |
40.33 |
39 |
Slow
Uptrend - higher lows |
|
| apr 10 |
G |
41.35 |
39 |
Increase
stop |
|
| apr 4 |
G |
40.80 |
38 |
Goldcorp
looks to be moving sideways to up. A move over $41.50 to 42 would put a near term price target of $44 - $45 at 80%. $38 looks to be key support. |
|
| mar
28 |
G |
40.40 |
38 |
We
are near technical support $ 38.50. $41.56 was the local high of the 3 day trend. |
|
| mar
25 |
G |
40.70 |
38 |
Goldcorp,
possible reversal with older high as the target. $45.89 - gold remains in a bull market. |
|
| apr
9 |
HFU |
14.40 |
Stop-out,
even trade |
||
| apr
4 |
HFU |
14.80 |
14.40 |
After
reaching $15.50 in the uptrend, a slowdown . New buying will be needed at this key point. |
|
| apr
1 |
HFU |
15.16 |
14.40 |
Up
5% from Monday's commentary. $15.50-$16 upper resistance |
|
| mar
31 |
HFU |
14.41 |
Added
to the watchlist. |
||
| apr 2 |
NML |
1.80 |
+5.8%
return Stop-out, $1.98 was the local high of the short-term uptrend. |
||
| apr 1 |
NML |
1.90 |
1.80 |
Volumes
have dropped, increase-stop |
|
| mar
31 |
NML |
1.89 |
1.75 |
Increase
stop-loss. It's been a fast move, Mondays move was 11% up. Keep your stop set. We could sell off just as fast. |
|
| mar
28 |
NML |
1.70 |
1.46 |
New Millennium Capital Corp, Surging volumes and a breakout at friday's
close.- see comments Saturday March 29. |
|
| apr 2 |
HAT |
2.30 |
Stop-out,
Uranium stocks are just not gaining with $100 oil. Long term, Uranium
stocks look cheap - if we see another Rally. |
||
| mar 28 |
HAT |
2.56 |
2.30 |
Hathor
Exploration -Uranium, support at $2.50. Risk level is high -
consider this spec money. Volumes and price are indicating higher days ahead. 1-2% of the total asset portfolio would be the most disciplined trade. http://www.hathor.ca |
|
| mar
28 |
ABX |
45.20 |
+2.3%
return, Stop-out. Please read the USA trading notes above on ABX. |
||
| mar
27 |
ABX |
46.15 |
45.20 |
Increase-stop, | |
| mar
25 |
ABX |
44.15 |
43 |
Barrick
Gold, possible reversal with older high as the target. $52 + - gold remains in a bull market. |
|
| mar
26 |
HFU |
14.00 |
+5.6%
return, Stop-out |
||
| mar
25 |
HFU |
14.30 |
14.00 |
15 |
Increase-stop,
Short term ternd is slowing. Sell ? |
| mar
24 |
HFU |
13.90 |
13.25 |
15 |
up
4.91%, increase stop. |
| mar
20 |
HFU |
13.25 |
12.50 |
15 |
Horizon
Betapro Financial Bull ETF, Volume is 2X normal. A local base for financials looks to have formed. |
| mar 26 |
BMO |
46.25 |
+3.9% return, Stop-out | ||
| mar 25
|
BMO |
46.93 |
46.25 |
51.76 |
Increase
stop-loss, trend is weaker - sell ? |
| mar 24
|
BMO |
46.76 |
45.00 |
51.76 |
Up 5%
, Increase stop-loss |
| mar 20
|
BMO |
44.51 |
42.30 |
51.76 |
BMO,
could rise to the 50 day moving average. |
| mar 26 |
CM |
66.00 |
+8.6% return, Stop-out | ||
| mar 25 |
CM |
67.40 |
66.00 |
Increase
stop loss |
|
| mar 24 |
CM |
66.80 |
65.00 |
Up
9.9% from march 18 posting, Increase
stop loss Above target, Resistance at $68 |
|
| mar 20 |
CM |
64.26 |
62.40 |
Up 5.7% from march 18 posting, Increase stop loss | |
| mar 18 |
CM |
60.75 |
57.26 |
66.87 |
CIBC,
for traders only - a possible move to the 50 day moving average 66.87
This is a higher risk trade. Use a stop-loss |
| mar
26 |
RY |
47.80 |
+2.7% return, Stop-out | ||
| mar
25 |
RY |
48.63 |
47.80 |
increase
stop-loss |
|
| mar
24 |
RY |
47.82 |
47 |
Up
2.7% from march 18, increase stop-loss. Near short term target. $48.00 was the high of the day. |
|
| mar
20 |
RY |
46.68 |
44.50 |
Up
2.46% today. Volume traded today was 2X average |
|
| mar
18 |
RY |
46.53 |
44.50 |
48.11 |
Royal
Bank, for traders only - a possible move up to $48.11 This is a higher risk trade. Use a stop-loss |
| mar
11 |
HXD |
20.93 |
21 |
+5% return, Stop-out. from $20 email
alert
to our members. |
|
| mar 07 | HXD | #1
Bear Market Pick for Canada |
|||
| feb
29 |
HXD |
20.56 | 19.54 | EA |
Buy signal at $20.03 on the opening bell. Volumes are up. |
| mar
17 |
BIR |
9.50 |
|
-3.5% loss, stop-out, Next Support at
$8 |
|
| mar
11 |
BIR |
10.0 |
9.50 |
|
Increase
stop-loss |
| mar
05 |
BIR |
9.85 |
9.30 |
EA |
Birchcliff
Energy, PE is negative 61, breakout under low volumes, Volume = 792,000 shares. |
| mar 17 |
ECA |
76 |
Stop-out,
break-even trade |
||
| mar 14 |
ECA |
78.50 |
76 |
Increase
stop loss. |
|
| mar 10 |
ECA |
75.71 |
75 |
Weakness
in the trend. Keep a tight stop-loss or sell. |
|
| mar
05 |
ECA |
76.77 |
74 |
Increase
stop, |
|
| feb
28 |
ECA |
76.22 |
73 |
Encana
, remains in the uptrend. Natural Gas pure play. |
|
| mar
17 |
CPG |
28.00 |
+4.8 % return, stop-out |
||
| mar
14 |
CPG |
29.03 |
28.00 |
Increase
stop-loss |
|
| mar
12 |
CPG |
28.60 |
27.45 |
27.45
is now support, Increase stop-loss |
|
| mar
07 |
CPG |
27.35 |
26.60 |
27.50
in upper resistance |
|
| feb
25 |
CPG |
27.25 |
26.60 |
Up
2% Increase stop. |
|
| feb
22 |
CPG |
26.71 |
26.70 |
Cresent
point energy trust, Breakout |
|
| mar 10 |
G |
41.80 |
+5.8% return,stop-out |
||
| mar 07 |
G |
42.62 |
41.80 |
Momentum
has slowed, near term resistance, Take profits or sell on weakness |
|
| mar 05 |
G |
43.88 |
41.80 |
Increase
stop-loss, |
|
| feb
28 |
G |
43.67 |
40.97 |
Increase
stop-loss, Triple top breakout |
|
| feb
22 |
G |
40.96 |
39 |
More
Volumes would be nice, Increase stop-loss. |
|
| Feb
19 |
G |
39.50 |
38 |
A
triangle Breakout. Volumes are up on the breakout. |