USA Traders' Notes and Stock Picks - Archived
for March 18 to April 15, 2008



Saturday April 12 The SP500 looks to have reversed course in the short term. Dow down 256 points ending near 50 day support 12,325,  Again members will be updated with current maket picks for the week ahead.

Monday April 14   Members emailed new stock picks and traders notes. Gas Stocks are moving.

Sunday April 13 The SP500 looks to have reversed course in the short term. Dow down 256 points ending near 50 day support 12,325, volume was above average indicating a possible continuation to the downside. The SP500 did not have the same above average volume as the Dow. It could be the market is just finding another base - the alternative is another run at the Jan 2008 lows.

Stock Scan ver 8.1 results: CPST $42.71, CF $138.43, CLR $38.38, FMX $44.39, GTE $4.25, HP $51.62,
MOS $121.61, PXP $62.53, POT $178.47, PDE $38.12, SQM $28.67, SWM $36.80


April 7, 9, 11
  Members emailed new stock picks and traders notes.

Saturday
April 5 After 3 solid months of posted stock picks, we hope our readers have enjoyed
some finanical gains. For the next 3 weeks, members will be emailed traders stock picks and commentary
directly. Our posted web-based traders picks and notes will again be online April 28.
Alerts are emailed before the markets open as good trading ideas arise.


Thursday April 3, close X US Steel $137.91 up from $125.69 - March 29th notes. Walter Industries  WLT $69.08 up 6.97% today and up 9.8% from March 29 notes.WLT is a technical textbook move. The big question is how high will WLT go before a pause or retracement? We picked this stock back at $44.71 feb 11,2008.
JRCC $19.23 James River Coal could be moving up again for a similar breakout as WLT.

 XEC $58.03 breakout in progress. HP $48.97
Helmerich & Payne In - slow breakout. MTH $22.78 Meritage Homes - above the 200 day moving average. PQ $18.40  Petroquest Energy - uptrending, NEU $80.85 NewMarket Corp. - a steady uptrend breaking 52 week highs.

Tuesday
April 1, close XLF $26.62 up 7.4%. The move could continue as we have just crossed the 50 day moving average. Citigroup C $23.84 up 11% close to breaking the 50 day moving average $24.20. The SP 500 up 3.59%, 1370 upper resistance 1400. The SP500 could be in  a near term trading range in the short term.

Tuesday
April 1, pre-market Apache Corp. APA $120.82 , Gilead Sciences, GILD $51.53 near breakout moves. Golds are weakening, down $18 pre-market. XLF $24.87 financials could benefit.

Saturday March 29
  US steel X $125.69 is nearing a breaking out. Volumes on US Steel need to be 7 million shares with another up tick in price. The market is not providing a clear leadership sector to chase after. Our Stock Scan 8.1 results worth a review by our readers: CSX Corp. CSX $56.65, Kirby Corp. KEX $56.39, Clean Harbours CLHB $65.08, TNS Inc. TNS $21.30, Walter Industries WLT  $62.90 a 52 week high, Comstock Resources  CRK $39.90, Compass Minerals CMP $61.95, and Encore Acquisition Co. EAC $40.17. A Breakout on the above list must be with above average volume - enter your trade and place a stop-loss.

Thursday March 27, close
  XIDE $13.20 is up 11% - take profits. US steel X $121.52 looked to be breaking out, but the  volumes do not support to move. The Golds have indicated a reversal,  but the stocks need more buying momentum. GLD $93.46 has slowed. JRCC $17.69 James River Coal Company, WLT $62.45 coals have retraced to the old levels - buying the dips would have worked. On the technical side, the SP500 @ 1325 looks to be rolling over and headed lower - but the low volumes do not indicate this. No new scanned picks to report, as the market is looking for leadership. QID,SDS, TWM Ultrashorts could be added to the watch list. Email Alert to our members - sent.

Wednesday March 26, pre-market
Citigroup C $23.27 and XLF are weakening in the current "short term" uptrend. Increase you stop-losses or sell the financials. XIDE $13.47 continues  up. Gold at $947 as of the March 26 (AM) is making a rebound. Barrick Gold ABX $43.55, Goldcorp GG $40.01 are top picks. US steel X $124.56 is also moving toward a break-out. A rotation out of financials and back into commodities seems to be taking place.

Tuesday March 25 pre Market- email Alert to our members

Monday March 24, close
The Financial's are leading the market higher today. A rally with Bear Stearns up 88.76%. The XLF was only up 1.29%, A "shooting star" candle stick pattern looks like a signal to a slowing uptrend. Citigroup gained 3.4 %. For Citigroup, the upper Bollinger band is near term resistance @ $25.39 using a Bollinger band ( 20, 1.7 ) NFLX up 14.6% and C up 12.3%  from prior buy signals.

Friday March 21 Market is closed.  From the last 5 trading days, our current stock pick performers are : Citigroup C +8%, HCBK +7.8%, NFLX +8.9%. Citigroup has near term upper resistance at $25. The double bottom on the SP500 is holding with a nice finish to the week on higher volumes. The Volatility Index VIX 26.62 has now dropped to the 50 day moving average and the spike to 35.60. Similarly, back in mid-January the VIX spiked to 37 with a traders bottom in place. XLF $26.32 could be a way to play the financials.

Wednesday March 19,  Across the board selling.  For the most part our picks have held up, XIDE,  HCBK,
NFLX, C,  The sell-off on the SP500 was less volume than the prior days of buying. At this point the SP500, 1298 is slowly griding higher. As the SP500 touched it's 50 day moving average approx. 1341- a major resistance point was tested. The SP500, 1256 and 1270  look to be double bottoms - but a wait and see with more testing will be needed.

Tuesday March 18, at the close
Lehman up 46.43% was the big move. Bear Stearns BSC up 22% to close at $5.91. Speculation of a failed $2/share deal with BSC. Bear Stearns survived the 1929 stock market crash - could it survive the 2008 crash ? XIDE up 5.62%, HCBK up 5% From Monday's
SP500 comments, it is looking more like (1) a near term double bottom being formed. C, $20.71 Citigroup 1.5X volume could signal a buy. Tuesday eve, Email Alerts sent to our members.


Traders' Notes.  NYSE,  Nasdaq and AMEX



Date
Ticker
Price
Stop
Target
Comments, EA = Email Alert
apr 12
AKS

65

Up 3.1% Stop-out
apr 11
AKS
66.68
65

Up 5.8% from April 7th, Increase stop
apr 10
AKS
66.95
62

Increase stop
apr 9
AKS
64.94
60

Increase stop
apr 7
AKS
62.99


AK Steel Holding Corp, uptrend breakout
Apr 11
GILD

51

Stop-out
Apr 10
GILD
52.09
51

Maintain-stop, Volume needed for a higher move.
Apr 1
GILD
52.88
51

Increase-stop
mar 31
GILD
51.50
49

Gilead Sciences, Breakout over $52.25
apr 10
XLF

26.00

Stop-out, -2.3% , $27.35 was the upper resistance
apr 3
XLF
26.72
26.00

Increase-stop
apr 1
XLF
26.62
25.80

Up 7.4 %, Gap up on the bell. A close above the 50 day moving average is a good
signal.
mar 31
XLF
24.87


Pre-market Monday - added the the watchlist.
apr 9
QLD

74.50

Stop-out, -1.7%, $78.69 was the the upper resistance
apr 3
QLD
76.48
74.50

Increase-stop
apr 1
QLD
75.83
73.50

Move upward 8%, Rounding bottom - short term uptrend
apr 9
X

142

Stop-out, up 16.8 % from March 27
apr 8
X
145.55
142
147
increase-stop. The high was $148 or the target price.
apr 7
X
143.72
141
147
increase-stop. The high was $148 or the target price.
apr 4
X
140.70
135
147
increase-stop
apr 3
X
137.91
130

increase-stop
apr 1
X
132.65
125

Volume signal of 7.7 million and + price move
mar 31
X
126.87


Volume is only average. The breakout should have 7 million shares traded up.
mar 28
X
125.69


Volume is only average. The breakout should have 7 million shares traded up.
mar 27
X
121.52


US Steel, Breakout above $125-126 on high volume signal.
The drop today of 3.88% is not screaming a buy signal -- yet.
apr 11
PRGO

38.50

Stop-out, support at $36.80, resistance at $40
apr 10
PRGO
39.62
38.50

Increase stop, Volumes are building
apr 7
PRGO
38.96
38

Increase stop, Volumes are weak - below average.
apr 4
PRGO
39.48
37.50

Increase stop, now trading on lower volumes - possible reversal or pause un trend.
mar 24
PRGO
38.81
36.38
41+
Perrigo Co- Healthcare, Breakout on 2X avg. volumes.
mar 31


38

Stop-out, Golds were showing weakness. - March 28 notes.
mar 28
GG
39.50
38

We are near technical support $ 39. $40.89 was the local high
of the 3 day trend. The Gold uptrend has weakened as mentioned on ABX.
mar 25
GG
40.01
38

Goldcorp, possible reversal with older high as the target. $46 +
mar 28
ABX
44.70
44

Stop was triggered at $44, The golds have paused. This stop was set to make profits.
Set you stop-loss depending on market conditions and risk of trade.
Better to exit with a small gain than to enter a trade with no exit strategy.
mar 27
ABX
45.08
44

Increase stop, Volumes need to increase or sell on a profit. up 3.5%
mar 25
ABX
43.55
42

Barrick Gold, possible reversal with older high as the target. $54 +
- gold remains in a bull market.
mar 28
OFG

21.80

Stop out, -6%
mar 24
OFG
23.26
21.80

Oriental Financial Group, long term resistance at $26
mar 26
XLF

26.25

Sold, even trade, Bear rally
mar 25
XLF
26.58
26.25

sell or increase stop loss - uptrend is weak
mar 24
XLF
26.66
26.00
27.50
A daily high of 27.37 was reached. Stop-increased
mar 20
XLF
26.32
24.70
27.50
Financials Select Sector. Volume is 222,000,000. $27.50 is near term target.
mar 26
C

22.50

+8.6 % profit, Stop-out
mar 24
C
23.27
22.50
25
Up 12.3 % from march 18 , Increase stop-loss
The short term target of 25 is nearing.
mar 20
C
22.50
21
25
Up 8 % from march 18 , Increase stop-loss. Volume of 180,000,000
mar 18
C
20.71
19

Citigroup, short term trade to possible targets $25+
mar 20
HCBK
18.29
17.25

up 7.5 %, Increase stop-loss.
mar 18
HCBK
17.86
16.75

up 5%, Increase stop-loss.  Breakout.
mar 17
HCBK
17.01


Hudson City Bankcorp.
A slow moving breakout. A 4% move on above average volumes.
mar 27
NFLX

36.00

8.2 % profit , Stop - out
mar 24
NFLX
38.17
36.00

Up 14.6 % from march 13 posting, Increase stop loss
mar 20
NFLX
36.24
35.00

Up 8.9% from march 13 posting, Increase stop loss
mar 18
NFLX
35.00
32.50

Set stop loss, Breakout - volumes could be higher
mar 13
NFLX
33.26


NetFlix Inc. Added to the Watchlist. A breakout signal over $34.70
mar 28
XIDE



up 12.6% profit,  Sold at 13.40 - after March 27th note.
mar 27
XIDE
13.20
13.00

up 11%, Increase - stop. Volumes are dropping. Sell ???
mar 25
XIDE
13.47
12.80

Increase stop loss, we could be nearing a local top. 80% completed the uptrend
mar 24
XIDE
13.15
12.40

Up 10.5% from March 12 posting, Increase stop loss
mar 18
XIDE
12.78
11.65

Increase stop loss
mar 13
XIDE
12.34
11.50

Breakout above $12, uptrend
mar 12
XIDE
11.89


Exide Technologies looks to be breaking out over $12
mar11
QID

53

stop-out, + 5.51% profit, Mega Market rally
mar03
QID
55.47
53

55.69 is the upper resistance, Increase stop-loss, 225,000,000 shares traded last week
mar03
QID
53.80
51.90

Uptrend out of a triangle formation in progress.
feb 29
QID
52.66
50.80
EA
Email Alert, Buy signal at $51.73 on the opening bell.
feb 27
QID
50.23


Proshares Ultrashort QQQ
mar11
TWM

88

Stop-out,+4.4% profit, Mega Market rally
mar10
TWM
95.53
88

Increase stop loss, up 13.70% from Email Alert
mar07
TWM
91.76
87.50

Increase stop loss, volumes are increasing
mar04
TWM
86.77
82.50

Increase stop loss
feb 29
TWM
84.28
80.20
EA
Proshares Ultrashort Russel 2000, Email Alert, Buy signal on the opening bell.
mar 11
SDS


67.25
Stop-out, +11.8% profits, Mega Market rally
mar10
SDS



#1 Bear pick for the market - link
feb 29
SDS
64.47
61.50
EA
Email Alert, Buy signal under $63 on the opening bell.
feb 27
SDS
60.11


Back on the watchlist, Proshares Ultrashort SP500.  Just at the 50 day moving average for support.
mar 19
GLD


EA
Gold dropped $50+ an oz. The sell signal was also issued to our Kinross holdings
on the Canadian picks below this table.
mar 18
GLD
97.02


Sell on any additional weakness, volume spike signal and loss of momentum.
3.8% profit .
mar 17
GLD
99.17
95.63

Increase stop-loss to 20 day moving average
mar 12
GLD
98.71
95

Increase stop-loss.
mar 05
GLD
97.72
94

Increase stop-loss.
mar 04
GLD
95.18
93

A spike of 20 million shares down 2% - near term weakness ?
feb 28
GLD
95.99
93.0

Rising on lower volumes. A rise over the past 5 trading days.
feb 22
GLD
93.46


Gold, Uptrend still in place, 4 days of higher closes. 92.35 is support.
mar 10
CMP

57.50

Stop-out, +5.8% profit
mar 07
CMP
58.71
57.50

Increase Stop-Loss, Slowing uptrend
feb 27
CMP
59.11
56

Increase Stop-Loss, or sell on profits. It's been a fast run
feb 25
CMP
59.11
54.80

Breakout on positive volumes
feb 14
CMP
54.31


Compass Minerals International ( Salt mining ),
A massive breakout, Look for a safe entry point on a retracement.
mar 10
AKS

52.30

Stop-out, high of 56.27 before the reversal.
mar 05
AKS
55.90
52.30
EA
AK Steel Holding Corp.Double top Breakout, up 4.6%, Volumes could be a little higher but a 52 week high.
mar 17
DBC

37

Stop-out at $37,  4.8% profits. Weakness across the markets
mar 12
DBC
38.91
37

Uptrend continues, Volume is up
mar 10
DBC
37.90
36

Uptrend continues, Volume is up
mar 05
DBC
37.30
36

Up move after the 3 day pause. Caution - it's been a big move
mar 04
DBC
36.50
36

Increase stop-loss, A top could have formed on high volumes
feb 22
DBC
35.30
34.40

DB Commodities tracking Index. In an uptrend. Breakout was a few days ago. Volumes are droping
mar 06
WLT
57.74


Sold @ $58.50,  30.84% profits
mar 05
WLT
57.99
55

Increase stop, momentum pause, Take some profits
mar 03
WLT
58.13
53

Increase stop, A nice run up 29.9 % from our #2 buy signal
feb 29
WLT
54.63
52.50

Increase stop - protect profits.
feb 27
WLT
53.52
51.50

Increase stop.
feb 25
WLT
54.11
49.50

up 5.62% today, Increase-stop
feb 22
WLT
51.23
49

Increase stop-loss, pause in climb, lock in some profits
feb 20
WLT
51.46
47

Up 10% today, Increase stop-loss
feb 13
WLT
46.90
45

up 6.7 %, next upleg, volumes could be higher but a move up.
feb 11
WLT
44.71


Walter Industries. Close to breakout again, $45.50 and high volume is breakout signal. $40.83 was the original buy signal - alert.
mar 03
JRCC

16.50

stop-out, 53.77% profits
feb 28
JRCC
17.40
16.50

Increase stop
feb 19
JRCC
16.50


Take some profits.
feb  13
JRCC
16.89
15.0

up 14% on breakout.
feb 11
JRCC
15.13
14.0

increase stop, volume surge - could be another double top breakout
feb 08
JRCC
14.64
13.50

resistance near $15, increase stop
feb 05
JRCC



Take some profits, 13.71 was the high of the day.
feb 4
JRCC
14
13

Up another 3.4% monday ,Increase stop-loss or take profits,
up 30.4%
from the buy signal.
feb 2
JRCC
13.53
12

Up 10% friday. Increase stop loss or sell and lock in profits.
jan 31
JRCC
12.24
11.24

Increase stoploss. local resistance at 12.
jan 29
JRCC
11.42
10.80

increase stop-loss,  nearing resistance of 11.94.
jan 26
JRCC
10.73
9.50

James River Coal, 11.94 is breakout. StockPhase 1 - base formed ,
Risky but  trend is turning up over the 200 day  Moving Average.