Top Stock Picks for the TSX and TSX Venture
| June
29, 2008 Weekend Update 11:55 AM EDT |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| The TSX
14,355 is very close to key support levels of 14,250. The 200 day
moving average is at 13,859 and is a secondary support level. The volumes of the past week are above average, but are not giving a clear market signal yet. In the last 2 weeks, not all sectors have been involved in this sell-off. Canadian financials (CM, BNS, GWO ) have taken the worst of the down move. Research in motion, RIM, $122, gapped down Thursday and is near technical support of $120. Further technical support in RIM would be at $113. As RIM was a market favorite, the TSX can be pulled down by a few major names. Oil and Gas Stocks The current snapshot of the oil stocks is generally a wait a see down trend. We have seen some retracement of the big names. Suncor, SU, $59.40 has been moving in a downtrend for the past 14 trading days. Suncor has support at $55 for a new entry point. Encana, ECA, $89.85 is also retracing from a double top of $97.81. If ECA were to retrace back to the longer term moving average, 70-75 would be strong support. Break-out Stocks, New Stock Scan Results : The Canadian traders' notebook is updated with new stop-loss positions for:
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Friday June 27, Pre-market | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Updates for our members were sent out pre-market. Expect a new update for the weekend - Sunday. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| June 22, 2008 Weekend Update | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
The TSX 14,580 is very close to key support levels of 14,500 after falling from a triple top formation of 15,150. The volume of the sell-off Friday is a sell signal. The last time volumes were this high was the lows of mid March. If further weakness pulls down the index to below 14,400, the next support will be 14,000. Not all sectors are involved in this sell-off, however Friday's action was across the board. Agrium Inc., AGU,$110.70 and Potash POT, $233.65 could have reached near term tops. The price action may be a retracement or a pause for now. Volumes were high Friday and these volumes usually signal a local top. Airlines stocks continue to be in a downward trend with fuel costs. Avoid these stocks if oil continues a move higher. Canadian bank stocks are under pressure. CIBC, CM $61.63 dropped 2.94% Friday and is headed towards a 52 week low. Manulife Financial, MFC $37.13 sold off with a volume spike which was a warning signal. For MFC, key support at $37 could be broken with this volume spike. BMO is also trending lower with support at $38-40. BNS, $49.62 reversed direction and is now heading lower on a volume spike of nearly 8 million shares.The 200 day moving average should support BNS at $49.23. The Royal, RY $47.60 sold off on 11.4 million shares and looks to be heading lower to $44-46 support. Talisman Energy, TLM, $22.28 could have rolled over and formed a double top in the near term. The selling volume Friday was 2X normal volumes. Canadian Natural Resources, CNQ, $102 sold off on nearly 2X volumes. CNQ does appear to be nearing a top in the next 2-3 weeks. Canadian Oil Sands, COS, $50.80 sold off on 3.6 million shares or (2x) normal volumes. In the near term, if COS does not break $55, a double top formation has been verified and prices will move lower - to approx. $48.90. Husky Oil, HSE, $47.61, sold off to break a key trend line. From a technical view, HSE could be moving toward $43-44. Precision Drilling PD, $27.02 has slowed it's up trending climb. When we first added this to our watch list in February, it crossed the 200 day moving average at $21. PD sold off under low volumes Friday, which is positive, except the fast money has been made in the past 3 months. Uranium stocks are flat to down. Denison Mines, DML, $6.97 sold off Friday on nearly 2X average volumes. Cameco, CCO, $37.90 is flat and in a bottoming formation. In mid-May Uranium made a run and since has retreated. It could be the focus on wind and solar power for the near term is on the minds of speculative traders. Hathor Exploration, HAT, $2.69 continues to have support in the 2.50-2.80 range. The news from this exploration player is worth noting, should uranium start moving up. Defensive Stocks, New Stock Scan Results: Horizon Bear Financials, HFD, $25.54 Bank stocks are heading down. HFD has broke-out. Upper resistance at $26.51 and $30. Volumes in the last 2 days were 2X normal. Horizon Bear TSX 60 Bear, HXD, $16.70, A possible triple bottom on the HXD, or the inverse of the TSX and a triple top. Further weakness in the TSX could signal the breakout. Gold Stocks are continuing to improve. A possible uptrend could start. Several of the key gold companies are in consolidation formations. Kinross , K, $19.87 is on the 200 day moving average and could advance. Goldcorp, G, $41.37 a similar graph to Kinross. $44 would be a signal a possible uptrend could start. Paramount Resources, POU, $20.54 A possible move higher on the volumes of the past 4 trading days (2x normal). A stop-loss would be $20. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| June 17, Tuesday at the Close | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
For the Fertilizer stocks Potash POT and Agrium AGU , please update trailing stop-loss positions. We have suggested some for the US trades. Oilexco OIL has moved above $18 and we have been commenting on the possible move since June 13. TransAlta TA $37.25 looks like it has just broke out of a new double top. We hold this position and the move is with volume. A little choppy, the TSX index has made a 2 day move to the upside. What's missing is the reversal volume. Break-out move: Ivanhoe Energy IE $3.42 up 7.89% today and volume is high. Stop-loss $3.20 |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| June 16, 2008 Weekend Update |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
The TSX index 14,778 does not look like it is in a bullish advance, but rather a sideways to down move. A double top could be confirmed if we do not retrace and make new highs. After the high of 15,154 we have seen selling. The 1.2% move Friday to the upside was on lower than average volume and suggests some consolidation before we move higher. Nortel Networks, NT, $10.32, a big move in the last few days. After the dot.com bubble, this company still can make the news. One thing to learn here is the winners die hard. If Oil is in a bubble, the Oil companies like Nortel in 1999-2000 will make up the bulk of the exchanges weighting. Nortel has nearly doubled since March 24 and could reverse direction on profit taking. A strong bottom formation would be to graph the stock and see no near term resistance in the last 1-2 years. The more resistance, as in Nortel's case at $11-12, the more sellers enter the market. Last week we suggested the banks were mixed and some were looking better than others. The National Bank, NA, was $54.07 1 week ago, Friday it closed at $52.78 - bouncing off the 200 day moving average. Royal Bank, RY $49.00 closed well below its 200 day moving average on Friday. Royal is trending down with lower support at $45. Short term, we do not see a near term surge in the bank stocks, but a sideways to downward trend. Break-out Stocks, New Stock Scan Results:
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| June
10, Tuesday at the close |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Potash North Resources - Speculative play of the the last 5 days. PON, Potash North Resource $3.78, CDNX. It opened trading last week after a name change and has rocketed up from under $1.50 to today's close. 2 permits have been issued for Potash exploration. It's early in the story for this company and Potash is a hot sector with fast money moving in. We note the move with the volumes holding over 7-18 million shares each day. This small potash upstart is behaving like a small gold stock with a big discovery. This will stay on our traders' watch list. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| June 7, 2008 Weekend Update |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
The TSX
index 14,969 has broke it's all time high of 15,154 early in the
session. The resource sector is driving this market higher and not all
sectors are making new highs. We mentioned some banks last week are
nearing or crossing the 200 day moving averages - a bullish signal. Royal Bank, RY
$49.68 closed below it's 200 day on Friday. This move lower is not a
bullish signal to the market. The good news is that the Royal banks
move
down Friday was on 50% average volume. Again, watch for volumes to
confirm the price direction. National
Bank, NA,
$54.07 has crossed the 200 day moving average and still looks like it's
moving higher. Stop-loss set at $53 in case of a reversal. Crude Oil Bull ETF, HOU $44.02 up 15.9% on Oil's move higher. The volume signal = 4X volume. As this is a fairly new ETF to the TSX, the volume was only 397,000 shares. A stop-loss of $42.50 would be needed to enter this trade. Break-out Stocks, New Stock Scan Results:
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| June 4, 2008 Wednesday at the close |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| A few winners to mention
today: HOD $9.74 continues to move higher with the Oil correction., Stop-loss changed to $ 9.10 Timminco, TIM, $33.70 TIM has broke out of a the last resistance of $28.50. Watch for added volume as the price rises or a failed break-out could result. WND, $4.12, Western Wind Energy Corp. has made a move higher from lower levels. The move is fast and worth watching. If Oil were to retrace higher to $130, these alternative plays will be on the watch list. With smaller companies only play 1-5% of your assets. BBD, $8.91, Bombardier, smaller aircraft plays into the energy theme. 31 million shares traded and a pop of 9%. The move could continue higher for a few days and level off. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| June 2, 2008 Monday at the close |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
West texas Oil may have found support at $125 in the short term. ( 2-5 days). The National Bank $54.10, NA could be moving higher if it breaks above 55. Wait for a move higher or "buy on stop" at $54.80. Coal stocks continue to make higher moves. Both Fording and Grande Cache moved up with Western Canadian Coal WTN up 7.6%. Coal will have some retracement and this would be a better entry point. Do not chase the winners without stop-loss positions. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| May 31, 2008 –
Weekend
Update |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
The TSX
index 14,714 has now broke out of it's triple top and retraced to
the support level of 14,625. We closed higher this
week under very choppy trading conditions. Our
bearish move on Oil and Oil stocks has resulted in upward moves of 5%
or better
for most of our readers in the past week. We have used ETF’s as a way
to lower
the risk of any one stock pick.
Fording Coal
FDG
$78.75 also
continues to move higher with demand from China. The only way
to play this trade is to place a stop-loss below your entry point.
Today this would be near $77. At some point these coal stocks will
correct but world demand has made these stocks soar. Break-out
Stocks, New Stock Scan Results: The
Royal Bank RY
$50.80 is near the 200 day MA and could break out to the
upside. The 200 day moving average is $50.83. As the Toronto-Dominion
Bank TD
$71.89 has moved up 2.77% Friday with a spike of 13 million shares,
Royal could
follow higher. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| May 27, 2008 –
Tuesday
at the close |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| The TSX 14,522 has rolled over
and has closed under the 14,625 old
support. This is not a good sign for making new highs in the next 10
trading sessions. The number of mutual funds trading Oil stocks
will soon be realized if Oil trades lower. Gold and Banks are not
looking strong fror the next 3 trading days. Traders should be prepared
to move to the sidelines if unsure of Oil and Gold's direction. NO New breakouts on the TSX Stock Scan version 8.1. Possible picks on weakness for May 28-30 are: HGD $10.41 Horizon Gold Bear HXD $16.89 TSX 60 Bear We now hold 2 Bearish Oil positions in our Traders' notes.
Members have been emailed new stock picks and added comments on the markets. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| May 23, 2008 –
Weekend
Update |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
The TSX 14,723 has lost ground on the past 3 trading days. From the breakout at 14,646 we have made some new highs. The pull-back to the break-out could now be in progress. If the Oil stocks pull back on profit taking, the TSX could move lower. Trend Reversal Watch list
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
May 22, 2008 – Thursday pre-market The TSX pulls back 256 points to 14,970. The volume of the move was the highest trading day since mid-March. We could run the risk of a pull back to the 14,650-14,750 area and test support. Oil is trading above $134 USD and any pullback will move the TSX lower with a sudden drop. Please keep stop-losses on all positions. When Oil is in the spotlight each day, all the bulls are in long positions. If we see Oil pull back in the next 1-6 months, it's going to be a big sell-off. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| May
20, 2008 - Tuesday at the close The TSX continues it's uptrend at 15,047. Volumes are above average an on a technical level and would indicate a higher move ahead. We could run the risk of a pull back to the 14,750 area and test support in the future. Uranium Spotlight: On May 08 we commented on the Uranium sector, " Back up the truck" were the exact words - looking back on the Canadian notes. We now add a few selections as to today's action. Uranium U $9.60 traded up 6.7% on over 2 million shares today. We have commented on the moves of a few big players and continue to hold CCO. It's not a straight uphill climb from here, but explosive alternative energy plays outside Oil and Gas are going to gain attention "if" and when Oil breaks $150 usd.
**Place a stop-loss under each of the above picks and reduce your risk. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| May
18, 2008 - Weekend Update The TSX continues it's uptrend. On May 14 we commented a close over 14,750-14,800 would be a signal of higher prices ahead. So the close Friday was 14,984. The last 2 trading days were on above average volumes. The TSX made a 3.19% increase for the week. At this point the market could be telling us the number of traders willing to run with this commodities boom out number the few who trade oil and gold stocks short. On May 08 we commented Cameco CCO $40.76 could be crossing the 200 day moving average and added this to our holdings. Today CCO $41.59 represents the Uranium sector moving higher from a long downturn. The move is technically bullish for CCO (cdn) / CCJ (us). CNQ, Canadian Natural resources $101.86. A great example of a move higher from a breakout at $80. Expect at some point some profit taking as the move is vertical and fast. Break-out stocks, New Stock Scans results:
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| May 14, 2008 - Wednesday at the
close For the TSX to show a breakout and hold this uptrend, a close over 14,750-14,800 would be a signal of higher prices ahead. At this point the triple break-out may still be a triple "top". Break-out stocks, New Stock Scans results: CLL $4.56 Connacher Oil and Gas , breaking out above $4.60 5 million share volume signal, 4X normal volume. Our 3rd follow-up on the April 25 stock picks:
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| May 12, 2008 - Monday at the close The
TSX 14,666 closed
at an all time high. RIM and ECA pushed the index higher. The good news
was RIM
$142.25 was one of our key stocks. Two ETF’s turned up on our stock
scan. HXU
$34.23 and XIU $87, both are ways to play the market without the need
to pick
individual stocks. Break-out
stocks, New Stock Scan results
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
May 09, 2008 Friday at the close. The TSX 14,521 is nearing a triple top breakout. If we were to break-out to the upside, near 14,700 a bullish rally may follow. Again, volumes need to increase as we break-out. Not all sectors are near a break-out. The financials are below the 200 day moving averages. Royal bank is trading at $48.58 and is moving up at a slow pace. The Royal bank needs to break the 200 day moving average of $51 to move into another phase 2 uptrend. As mentioned Thursday, Uranium stocks could be the big winners if Oil does not fall back to $110 or lower. DML, CCO, LAM, JNN, U, HAT are a few names. Keep these are your watch-lists. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| May 08, 2008 Thursday at the close. The TSX 14,607 is nearing a breakout. We mentioned May 06 the volume signal was missing. Volumes were up today and several stock groups moved higher. Golds, Oils and Uranium stocks were the big winners on the day. CNQ $96 has made an impressive move higher. The new big play of the day was the Uranium sector. If a base has been formed for these beaten down stocks (phase 1), it could be time to back up the truck. With Oil moving into the 120's, the uranium play should be watched for further price increases. Follow-up trades
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| May 06, 2008 Tuesday at the
close. On Friday May 02 we posted FEL $9.37, Fairbourne Energy as 1 of 3 new stock scans. FEL is up to $10.59 or up 13% in 2 days - I hope some traders have been watching this move. RIM $132.25 has not moved higher on volume and should be watched for continued volume and price confirmation. As with our US stock picks of April 25, a follow-up is needed. Our internal score card results. Why not keep these free stock picks honest.
For the above, 2 of the 3 stocks are trading above the break-out price posted April 25. SNC was updated in our traders notes below. A comment on the TSX at 14,414. At this point this move up could only be classified as a divergence. The market is moving up and volumes are not keeping pace ( approx. average). We need to see a big volume signal. In our view a 2-3X volume signal would confirm this uptrend. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| |
May 02, 2008 Friday at the
close. Any idea the US dollar spike would slow this commodities rally was crushed early in the day. Jumping 214 points to close at 14,280, the TSX rallied on lower than average volume. Again as with the US move, volumes were not high. For the short term, 3 prior highs will need to be taken out to rally to a new all time high. The old highs of 14372, 14625, and 14646 are nearing. 14,646 is a 5 year high and upper resistance will be strong. It is also important to note the 200 day moving average for the TSX is now trending down. Stay cautious - Cash is king. The ishares XIU $85.01 gapped up and did not have the volume needed to break the old high. The Coal Sector was one of the day's best performers with Fording FDG $65.15 jumping 5%. As the coal stocks have consolidated, the jump today brings some life back into the sell-off of the past few days.
New Stock Scans for Friday, May 02 Close
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| April
30, 2008 CLS Celestica $9.46 ,one of the few stocks on the TSX moving to new highs. Our scans are not picking up stocks breaking out to new highs. We could have crested in the overall market. The US dollar strength could cause the oil and gold markets to move lower. The TSX at 13973 continues to show weakness. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Sunday April 27, 2008 The TSX looks like a major top could have just been put in at 14,372. The 2 days of selling April 23-24 look like a reversal to the uptrend. Keeping this in mind, our caution flags are out for taking large positions in "long" positions. Until we retrace back above 14,372, the trend down to the 200 day average of 13,665 is the 60-70% probability. New stock scans for April 25, Market close
From our last update, we have stopped out of Mosaic and Potash. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Wednesday April 23, 2008 Mosaic MOS $133.27 and Potash POT $204.12, high volumes and some profit taking. Our stop-loss points for the US markets are updated. Halliburtion, Hal $47.48 continues a move higher. Upper target for HAL could be near $50. NBR $38.58 high volumes moving higher. The SP500 @ 1379 needs to break 1380-1390 to move higher. Stock Scanning results: NUE Nucor Corp. $75.24, 6 million shares trading on a nice uptrend. CVX Chevron $94.98, stop $93 RIO $39.23, stop $37.90 FE, First Energy $77.51, stop $75.80 KMP Kinder Morgan $59.44, stop 58.50 SGY Stone Energy Corp. $66.80, stop 62.50. Textbook uptrend. UNG United States Natural Gas Fund $52.62, stop 49.25 |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Saturday April
19, 2008 A 3 day rally on Wall Street. The SP500 up 1.81% @ 1390 breaking a trading range to the upside. For the SP500 near term, we have a technical target of 1439, or upper resistance at the 200 day moving average. The Dow @ 12,849 has overhead resistance at 13,090. Both the SP500 and the Dow need to break out of the upper resistance to move higher. The most likely case, a breakout higher and a retracement lower after testing the 200 day moving average. The Energy sector SPDR, XLE $83.59 is at a 52 week high. From the previous week-week April 13-14 Members email. Stock Scan ver 8.1 results: Potash, POT $204.67 up 14.6 % from $178.47 CF Industries, CF $153.94 up 6.5% from $144.42 Mosaic, MOS $135.25 up 11.2 % from $121.61 |