Top Stock Picks for
the TSX
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March
29, 2009, Traders'
Update
11:15 AM EDT |
| Coal companies GCE, WTN,
and iShares TSX 60 index, XIU This week, we change or focus from the TSX index at 8821, to the iShares TSX 60 index. As you can trade the iShares XIU, we give our readers more trading ideas. At $13.44, XIU ( chart ), gained 2.52% on the week on volume of 107 million shares. On longer term charts, XIU could have made a double bottom at $11.60 and $11.41. A close over the next resistance area of $14.50 would be bullish. The alternative to a break-out is we are nearing the top of a trading range at $14.44. If XIU fails to move higher, either we move sideways and consolidate, or down to a lower support near $13 short term. Coal Two Coal companies have moved higher in the past week; Grande Cache and Western Canadian Coal. Grande Cache was first discussed last year under $1.50, later to move above $10. According to the Financial Post, the price increase is due in part by a global pricing of near $129 US/tonne. The expectations of increasing fundamentals are moving these coal stocks. Both coking coal companies could gain if the demand for steel were to increase with a profitable coal price.
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March
23, 2009, Traders'
Update
10:29 PM EDT |
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Canada's National Bank breaks it's 200 day moving average, a first for North America. The TSX 8958 ( chart ) up 5.32% on the day or 452 points. As we have rallied for more than a few weeks, the near term resistance is at 9000 and stronger resistance at 9500. We remain cautious of each bear rally, and stop-losses are needed all all positions. Last week the TSX rally slowed near the end of the week, but with the US Fed injecting large sums of cash into the system, external forces are helping the market. One of the common themes with the TSX index is the commodities plays. The takeover today of PetroCanada by Suncor is the #1 news story. Oil stocks were the best preforming sector for a few years on the TSX. Today was no exception. The merger could spark a wave of speculation on which oil company will be taken out next. National Bank, $45.18 NA ( chart ), has just closed above the 200 day moving average with a 10% gain on the day. It is worth the mention, as this is the first bank to close above this important moving average. If NA can hold these gains, it could technically be in a new bull market. Close behind the National Bank is the Royal Bank $37.94 RY ( chart ) up 7.6% on the day. The 200 day moving average is 41.20 and is near. These 2 big banks are leading the Canadian banks higher. In the past 1 year, the Horizon Betapro ETF's have started to find their way into the top 20 traded TSX securities. If you like Canadian Banks, look to the HFU ETF discussed below.
Most if not all the market news is out of the US. Canada is a small player on the world markets and if the commodities are not moving higher, the US market could be.
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March
16, 2009, Traders'
Update
10:25 PM EDT |
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A shooting star candlestick at the top of the uptrend - a near term reversal ? The TSX 8386 ( chart ) rallied with a close of 1% today. From last week's update, the TSX is up 820 points or 10.8%. If we review our candlestick patterns, the close today looks like a shooting star. The formation of the shooting star candlestick could indicate a reversal of the uptrend for now. Another key indication of a weakening rally is the drop in volume. With just 234 million shares traded Monday or 90% of average volume, we could expect some consolidation. Some of the top 5 volume movers on the TSX for Monday were:
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March
9, 2009, Traders'
Update
11:20 PM EDT |
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| The TSX could follow a US Rally.
Oil is showing more bullish signals. Another re-test near 7500. The TSX 7566 ( chart ) could be bottoming. At some point a rally to the ( 10,500 to 11,000 ) or 200 day moving average could follow a US rally.
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March
2, 2009, Traders'
Update
10:45 PM EDT |
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Following the US markets, the TSX 7687 has re-tested support 7500-7600 today. Longer term support for the index is near 5678 or the 2002 low. We are a long way off from the low at this point. Please review the TSX ( chart ). The TSX has held up better than the S&P500 to this point. Technical support at this level ( 7500 ) has not been broken. The volume in today's sell-off of 5.36% is average, indicating a lack of direction. ETF StreetTRACKS Gold, GLD $90.93, ( chart ) has retraced and is testing support near 90.84. Last week we suggested gold has moved fast and needed to consolidate. In any case, keep a stop-loss on your trade. Gold stocks are acting more like the market as profits in gold stocks are being offset by losses in other sectors. |
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February
22, 2009, Traders' Update
12:35 PM EDT |
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The TSX, 7949 ( chart ) down 8.4% on the week on below average volumes. From our last weeks update, we are in the break-out to the downside as expected. The first re-test of the November 2008 low of 7647 could be within 14 trading days. The direction of the US Market will define the TSX moving into new multi-year lows or bouncing off the bottom. Gold and Gold stocks continue to be the only bull market on the TSX. The Canadian banks have put in new 10 year lows. The TSX is moving lower on banking and downward pressure on the insurance companies. Manulife Financial MFC, $13.12 ( chart ), plunged 25.1% on the week, on high volumes. MFC looks oversold from a technical perspective, however fear is gripping the financials. BMO $24.66 ( chart ), has broken the old support level of $28.89. A potential move to $22.75 could be the near term low. This move lower uses the short term trading range of $34.79 to $28.89 as a technical measured move. Royal RY $27.07 ( chart ), down 9% on the week. RY has broken the short term double bottom support level of $28.05. A potential move to $24 could be the near term target. This move lower uses the short term trading range of $32.00 to $28.05 as a technical measured move. Horizons BetaPro Financials Bear HFD $52.78 ( chart ) up 32% last week. The move higher is a new break-out for the ETF. The trade is not for the investor but for a trader with fast moves. If you are going to bet the banks will undergo the same nationalization talk across the border, this could be a winner. A suggested stop-loss would be near $46-$48 and reset daily. The move lower could be 80% over so be careful. Gold and Gold Stocks Eldorado ELD $11.26, ( chart ) we suggest a new stop-loss near $10.50-10.75. ELD has moved higher and remains technically bullish. This is not a new pick ( Jan 25/09 update ) but we should remind our readers to keep adjusting a trailing - stop loss to preserve profits. Horizons Gold Bull ETF, HGU, $15.01 ( chart ) is nearing the 200 day moving average of $15.43. This ETF is 200% the daily move of the underlying gold companies and built for traders. In the near term, HGU will need to move past resistance at $17.76 from September 2008. Longer term resistance points at $19.70 and $26 are down the road. Since the entire website is dedicated to the concept of Stockphase ( or buying stocks above the 200 day moving average ), HGU is at that point in real time. Gold Bullion has broke the $1000 level. Gold Stocks have underperformed the bullion $1002.20 ( chart ) but both remain the best bullish sector on the market. Our current stock scans have turned up 85% gold stocks. If gold can continue past the $1033 high from the spring of 2008, we could see a move to $1100 in the short term. Gold has moved fast and may need to consolidate before moving higher ? From last week, ETF StreetTRACKS Gold, GLD $97.80 usd, ( chart ) has moved up 5.6%. As with bullion, GLD is nearing the old high of $100.44. A break-out above $105 could confirm the direction is higher. |
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February
14, 2009, Traders' Update
7:27 PM EDT |
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The TSX, 8678 ( chart ) down 3.66% on the week. The Toronto index looks like a symmetrical triangle chart pattern. Given this formation has not completed, we would expect the price to break to the downside ( 80-90% probability ). Three attempts to break the the upper trend line have failed. On the 10-20% possibility we do break to the upside, the 200 day moving average (11,533) is still sloped down and would be the upside target on any 2-3 month rally. A pullback to the triangle trendline after the breakout direction is a possibility. The volume of the breakout should be above average giving the direction of the move.  TSX , February 13, 2009, Triangle Chartpattern Gold and Gold Stocks We have covered the ETF GLD in our US Stock picks with Eldorado gold this week. If you are a trader on the TSX it is a good idea to have a dual listed stock. Kinross Gold, Goldcorp, Eldorado, Iamgold, Novagold, and Barrick gold are trading on the TSX and on the US exchanges. If gold moves above $1000 US oz, the volumes to move the stocks higher are as important and the price. For Eldorado ELD $10.45, we suggest a new stop-loss near $9.50-9.75. Please review our updated US stock picks for February 13. ELD has moved higher and remains technically bullish. Horizons Beta HOD Oil Bear ETF, $38.11 ( chart ) has broken out from the old resistance of $32.25. For the week HOD popped 31.96%. It would be a good idea to protect this move higher by placing a stop-loss near $33-34. The volumes on HOD are relatively small at 1.7 million shares in comparison to the HOD ETF we will discuss next. Oil will not just keep falling to zero, so expect a topping formation at some point. Horizons Beta HOU, Oil Bull ETF $5.25 ( chart ), down 26.1% for the week on 186 million shares. If the ETF, HOD has broken to the upside, HOU has broken down. In the last 6 trading days, volumes were above 30 million shares. The #1 volume on the TSX Friday was HOU to the downside. The prior support level of $7.35 was broken over the week and the volumes spiked on fear. In many chart patterns, the spikes in volumes may define a top or bottom. Given the relatively low average volumes of 5-9 million shares traded on the TSX for any stock, HOD has been pushed in the the spotlight as a very liquid ETF for trading. |
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Feb 8,
2009, Traders' Update
1:36 PM EDT |
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| The
TSX, 9008 ( chart
) continues to trade in a trading range between 9500 and 8000.
In the last 2 weeks, support at 8500 continues to hold. A close
above 9500 would be a strong signal of a higher move.
A close below 8350 would suggest a retest of
November's low. At this point a buy or sell signal is easily
detectable. Looking at technical indicators; the Bollinger band width for the TSX continues to narrow. As the Bollinger bands narrow, the market has reduced some of the volatility. The VIX 43.37 , ( chart ) is has been steadily decreasing from the November 2008 high of 89. As the VIX looks to be dropping, on longer term charts, the VIX is still above the 37.50 break-out of early 2008. A few weeks ago, we discussed gold stocks and a possible break-outs. We revisit one of the larger gold producers, Goldcorp and the Gold ETF. Goldcorp G, $37.38 ( chart ), up 2.9% on the week. Volumes are decreasing over the last 4 weeks, as the price grids higher. The older resistance points of $38-39 are within 6% of the current price. Several attempts to close above the $40 price have failed. Goldcorp must close above $40 with a 2X average volume break-out to confirm a move higher. Traders can wait on the sidelines for the move higher. StreetTracks Gold GLD, $89.59 ( chart ) is nearing the $92 old resistance point. On a 3 year chart, the move higher looks bullish. Stock scan results Semafo Inc. SMF $1.99. ( chart ) has made a nice move higher to pop-up on our stock scan radar. The move on a 3 year chart is off 2 double bottom formations at .73 and .75 cents. The confirmation level of the double bottom was near $1.72. We have closed above the $1.72 price and using a measured move, could project the price to end up over $2.50. Semafo is a junior gold producer. Play the move with stop-loss at $1.75 as a pull-back on profit taking is possible. A less risky entry point could be near $1.75-1.80. |
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January
31, 2009, Traders' Update
12:06 PM EDT |
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Metro, Inc MRU $39.20 ( chart ) continues to move higher. The stock chart indicates one of the lowest volatility moves over 4 months. Volumes are not high, but the trend up has been in place since last November 2008. If we review the charts back in November 08, MRU was breaking out above $32. In this move up, a retracement back to $32 in early December quickly gave rise to the move to $37. We comment on this as a stop-loss would need to allow for some movement. On longer term charts, overhead resistance near $40 could slow down the trend higher. If Metro could close above the old high of $41.78, we would expect higher prices to follow. This is one stock to keep on the watch list. If you are long on Metro, keep moving up your trailing stop-loss to protect profits. |
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January
25, 2009, Traders' Update
4:31 PM EDT |
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| The
TSX, 8627 ( chart
) could be finding support near 8500. The market has not been a
stellar performer and we would not be making comparisons to how well
it's done to world markets. If you are down in any market, it's time to focus on a trading strategy. A stop-loss is only one method to stay out of trouble. Holding 5-7 trades in several sectors could keep you from tying up all your money in 1-2 positions. Gold stocks have provided bullish technicals in the past few days. Eldorado and IAMGold gold matched our technicals for a break-out. ETF HorizonsBeta Gold Bull HGU $13.72, ( chart ) could be the simple way to play the Canadian golds. A stop-loss at $11.80 to 12 could provide safety. Eldorado Gold ELD $9.85 ( chart ), 8 million shares traded on Friday and near a break-out. A stop-loss could be set at $8.75-9.00. The volumes are the key to this move higher. Goldcorp G, $36.25 ( chart ), US ( chart ), looks as good as any of the golds if the momentum holds. IAMGold, IMG, $8.43 ( chart ), A nice run in a break-out. This would be a pure momentum move as the stock is traveling on the upper Bollinger Band. Above $7.5 was the confirmation of the break-out. Set a stop-loss if you are in this move. West Texas Oil , ( chart ) $46.47 is nearing a close above the 50 day moving average. A close in the next few trading days above $47 could be near. Any close above the $50 price target could be partly due to the USD ( chart ) moving lower ? A move lower for the dollar could push gold and oil higher. |
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January
21, 2009, Traders' Update
7:01 AM EDT |
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| The
TSX, 8504 ( chart
) dropped 3.8% yesterday on average volumes. At this
point, the Toronto market may find support in the next few trading days
as the
S&P500 also has has taken a large loss of 5.28% Tuesday. The Canadian bank stocks have made a major push to re-test the lows of November. TD $39.42, RY $30.84 ( a 52 week low ), CM $43.52 could all be headed lower. The bank charts indicate that momentum is to the downside. For the next 2-3 weeks, we are looking for market direction. Either we test the lows of November or a slow to sideways movement up will be observed. The market is so shaken up that a rally is not in the cards. If you would like any specific ETF/stock reviewed, please email us at members @ topstocktraders.com. Please note, the ETF/stock must be trading over $5 for a general review in technical charting. |
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January
11, 2009, Traders' Update
2:35 PM EDT |
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We should start off with the
word caution. The overall market is trading sideways looking for a
direction.
The
TSX, 9085 ( chart
) lost 1.61% or the week. Technical
resistance is at 9500. The first full week of trading post the holiday
season is
indicating a short term trend lower to sideways. Volumes were average.
For any advance, the TSX will need to close above 9500. On the risk of
another trend lower, 8750 or the 20 day moving average could act as
support. The next support would be 8500. Keep watching the
S&P500 for direction. If the SP500 were to rally,
the TSX would follow.
Speculative Stocks
Uranium stocks have made a move higher off the lows in the past 3-4 weeks. Of the few to mention, Denison Mines, DML, ( chart ) , $2.10 has made a big bounce from .69 cents to $2.29. A similar looking graph can be found for Larimide, LAM. Hathor Exploration, HAT $3.50 , ( chart ), could be one of the better technically rising charts. HAT is rising above it's 200 day moving average with resistance approaching at the old high of $4.40. We should note, this is a speculative area of the market, but a few of our traders could make fast profits using stop-loss or quick trading methods. West Texas Oil (
chart )
closed the week at $40.83, down 11% for the week. Oil's rally from $35
to $50 in the past 3 weeks was a bounce from an oversold downtrend. At
this point demand is driving the long term price. For the $40 long term
support level to hold, oil will need to re-test the low of $35 to build
a base. Oil will not be trading in a vertical climb without breaking
out of the $51-52 overhead resistance. If we see another leg down on
the S&P500, we would expect Oil to pull back at this point.
The HorizonsBeta Crude Bear HOD $21.86, ( chart ) could be making a move back to the old high of $32.25. The timing on this move would depend on a pull-back on the US market. A suggested stop-loss of $20 may be the way to reduce risk. Please note a stock split 2:1 has made a few of the free charts on the web in error in January. Trading above the 200 day Moving Average: * A bullish indicator is when the 200 day MA is rising, not trending down. As we continue in a bear market, check this indicator on your own. A bullish long term trend needs the 200 day MA turning up for any stock, ETF, or Market. Biovail, BVF, $13.22. (chart ). BVF has crossed the 200 day MA and turned up on our radar. Volumes are not explosive, but the stock is moving in a nice uptrend. To make money in this market, these short term uptrends could be played for a 4-5 day trade. The next resistance level is $14.53 on longer term charts. WestJet, WJA, $13.70 ( chart ), has just moved above the 200 day MA. A near term target could be 15.50-16 if the trend continues higher. A suggested stop-loss would be $12.50 to reduce risk. |
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