Top Stock Picks for the TSX 
 
April  19, 2009  Traders' Update
12:35 AM EDT

The Canadian Banks. Break-out watch for the TSX. iShares Financials XFN.

TSX 9437 ( chart ) up 2.73% for the week. Volume 1.1 billion shares. We continue to monitor the TSX for a close above 9505. From last week, a strong move by the financials has contributed to the TSX's gains. If we look at the chart pattern of the TSX, the 9500 level could be a neckline of a double bottom. The upper limit of a continued move higher would be the 200 day moving average at 10,200.

A reminder to be diversified in a basket of ETF's and stocks. Please keep stop-loss points up to date. If we are entering a bullish phase is will pay to stay defensive with trading targets. The market will correct again. Since no moves are straight up, expect profit taking at some point. When the retail investor moves from bearish to bullish, a flood of new money is going to rally the market higher in a short time frame.

XFN ( chart ) iShares capped Financial ETF, $17.50, up 8.02% last week on high volume of 15 million shares. This ETF is nearing resistance at  near $18-18.23. If the US banking sector continues to improve, we see the Canadian banks moving higher and along with that XFN.  Some consolidation of the fast move higher should be expected near 18. It may not all be straight up, so use a stop-loss between $16.50-17 to protect yourself from losses.

Update from last week

HFU ( chart ) Horizons BetaPro Financials ETF, $6.54, up 17.20% last week. The move higher was on high volume or 2X average. If XFN is our #1 pick, then HFU is a close second. The break-out at $6.63 resistance is nearing. A close above $6.70 could have our next target price of 7.50-8. A pause and profit taking in this move higher could occur. A suggested stop-loss could be in the range of $5.50-$5.90.

TD, ( chart ), TD Bank, $49.69, has moved higher after a break-out at $47. We posted this pick on April 4th and since this time it's moved 7.6% higher. TD is nearing the 200 day moving average which if overcome will be bullish. We have a near term price target of $52.50. A suggested stop-loss would be near $46.90 or near the old break-out.

Stocks nearing a break-out

SLF ( chart ) Sun Life Financial, $29.09, up 8.5% last week. SLF is nearing the 200 day moving average of $30. If the overall TSX moves higher, SLF has a chance at clearing the $30 resistance point. A buy signal will be a close above $30.50. In the chance we are just running up against a sell-off at $30, wait for the move with higher volumes. In many cases after a stock closes above the 200 day MA, a consolidation period of 5-10 trading days could follow. Not all traders will chase a move higher, but wait for a new break-out on volume.


GWO ( chart ) Great-West Lifeco, $20.24, up 11.% last week. In the short term, GWO has a head and shoulders type bottom. The neckline for the break-out is near $19.93. If this is the set-up, the worst could be over for the sell off early March. A move to $23 is possible. A suggested stop-loss for this would be near $18.50-$19. Volumes will need to pick up. GWO does not have a volume signal to confirm the move higher at this point.

Watch list: Stock scans resulting in stocks/ETF's with upward momentum or nearing break-outs.

AXC,ARE,BMO,CM,CNR,FM,HXU,HBM,IGM,
IMN,XIU,MG.A,MFC,MX,POW,PWF,RY, TCM,

April  11, 2009  Traders' Update
11:15 AM EDT

The TSX is nearing a break-out.

The TSX 9187 ( chart ) has closed over the old resistance in the past month. The updated new near term resistance is at 9505.  On longer term charts, the TSX is looking bullish with Thursday's close above the 30 week moving average of 9096. If the market moves to close above 9505, the buying may strengthen with new money moving off the sidelines.

The Financials are one of the strongest sectors. The TD Bank, TD ( chart ) , is nearing the $47 break-out area. Manulife Financial, MFC, ( chart ) moved up 12.3% Friday. The Royal Bank, RY ( chart ) up 4.3% nearing the 200 day moving average. Royal has cleared 2 local tops and could move higher. If you do not want to pick any of the banks try HFU.

HFU, ( chart ) HorizonBetaPro Financial Bull, $5.58, up 11.6% on Friday. The move Friday was on above average volume of 4.7 million shares and could indicate the Canadian banks are ready for a move higher. Near term resistance is at $6.63, and momentum could move the banks higher.

From last week's stock picks:

TCK.B, ( chart ) Teck Cominco, $9.94, up 17.6% from last week's post. We commented Teck could be nearing a double top break-out at $8.85. At this point in the move, either we re-test the break-out at $8.85 or a move higher to $11-12 is possible. The chart pattern is a double bottom and a move above the neckline is similar to "head and shoulders" bottoms.

TLM, ( chart ), Talisman $15.30 up from last week at $14.58, or a 4.9% gain. Technical resistance could be near $16.



April  4, 2009, Traders' Update
10:43 AM EDT

Stock Picking based on Technicals. Energy and Tech

This week we focus on stock picking. ETF's are a more balanced and less risky alternative to picking stocks, but the market is starting to have a bullish bias. The list below are observations of some of the best stock set-ups for the short term. Some picks are riding high, and we have picked these winners to show the traders the underlying bullish trend of the past few weeks. As each of these stocks nears the upper trading range from November, a risk of another drop lower exists. The trade is to protect your entry point by placing a stop-loss within 2 minutes of making a buy. If you stop-out, move on and try your luck on another stock pick.

RIM, Research in Motion, $72.80, A gap higher to reach the older resistance of $74.50. The move Friday was 19.3% higher. The move needs additional buying on volumes to hold. Across the border, RIMM traded 75 million shares.

TD, TD Bank, $46.18, Nearing a break-out at $47.

IMO, Imperial Oil, $47.20, above the  200 day  moving average. The past 2 weeks have  IMO moving higher for nearly  22 trading days.
 
IE, Ivanhoe Energy, $1.71 and climbing. IE may need to retrace and catch up to the explosive gains.

PD, Precision Drilling, $4.25. Volume and price trending higher from a base.

TLM, Talisman $14.58, Closed  above the 200 day moving average. A bullish uptrend.

LUN, Lundin $2.11, The last 23 days have been impressive and up. From the low of .69 cents , to $2.25. The move was fast. Friday's volume of 19.2 million shares could be new buyers moving in  some traders taking profits.

NXY, Nexen, $23.40. The stock is nearing the 200 day moving average with older resistance near 24.24. A bullish indicator is the base formed since the November low of $13.33

S, Sherrit. $3.47. Sherrit has moved higher in the past few days with volume increasing. With 4.5 million shares traded Friday, the older resistance of $4.55 could be a near term target.

TCK.B, Teck Cominco, $8.45, Nearing double top break-out at $8.85. Wait for the break-out before adding long positions.

MG.A, Magna International, $41.20, building some momentum , a break-out above 42.31 could be nearing.

CNR, Canadian National Railway. $47.89. A close above the 200 day moving average and nearing a break-out near $48.68.